Oil entries

Discussion in 'Energy Futures' started by jasonjm, Aug 11, 2008.

  1. jasonjm

    jasonjm

    not sure if we will get em, but my spreadsheet that I trade oil (on a long time from with), is telling me to start averaging into CL at the low 90s.....


    what you guys reckon?


    Gold, its telling me high 600s
     
  2. The low 90's is fine if and when we get there. What does your spreadsheet tell you to do right now, at-the-market?
     
  3. PaulRon

    PaulRon

    wont see low 90s for a little while... get in long now
     
  4. Above 116.90 in the September contract will tell me that the correction is over.

    IEA report out tomorrow.
    Option Expiration Thurs.
     
  5. Landis, I have option expiry as Friday.

    Or I can correct you in your own style,

    "You are a complete and total idiot!! That is why you fail like every other retard on this board. The information is available for everyone who isn't too lazy to look it up!"
     
  6. jasonjm

    jasonjm

    spreadsheet is super simple

    its just measuring how far we are from a moving average

    basically trading extremes, sell when it gets too far above, buy when its too far below

    right now we are still above the moving averages

    oil will be well below the moving averages ifs around 90 within about 30 to 75 days time...... so that would be a buy, anything under 90 would be a more safe buy of course

    of course there is no guarantee we ever see those low prices
     
  7. If oil were to get to $90/barrel tomorrow, would the spreadsheet then say wait until oil gets to $70/barrel before buying?
     
  8. hehhehe... if you believe that you might want to get short right now.
     
  9. What moving average do you use in your calculation? Personally, I use the 200 day moving average. I calculate the number of standard deviations a particular index/commodity is trading above or below its 200 day moving average.

    Of particular interest right now is the XAU which is trading nearly 4 standard deviations below its 200 DMA.

    If I understand your strategy correctly, you are looking for extremes at which the particular instrument is significantly above or below its moving average. And then reversion to the mean will cause the price to revert downward if it is significantly above its moving average or the price to revert upward if it is significantly below its moving average. It works in most cases but can have problems in a strongly trending market.
     
  10. jasonjm

    jasonjm

    Just went long GDX

    hoping for a snap back to 40 or 41

    lets see......
     
    #10     Aug 12, 2008