lol... not. crude oil is ~ $60.... almost all the analysts on the planet predicted armaggeddon at $45...
I'm glad people are picking this thread up and contributing. However, i was wondering if anyone could answer some of my initial questions. Is this a good sector for a beginner to trade on? Or should I concentrate on lesser volume stocks between 200,000 - 1,000,000 and 25-35 price range? Since stocks in this group dont have as many big buyers and sellers coming in and out, so it would be easier to decipher the screen. I'd like to hear your thoughts. Or would it be possible to train myself by only looking at some of the easier to trade stocks within the energy/oil sector? What would be the best route for me to take at this point. (i'm still learning how to read the tape right now..and have only learned how to spot shortsell opoortunities, uptick,downtick, doubleprints, so i am not very consistent when i pick my entry/exit yet) I would certainly love to learn more on what else i should look for on the tape, for example, given a certain scenario, if the sellsize increases, bid decreases, and the prints displays a certain way, what does it indicates, how should i react... I found Maverick's post on double prints really helpful, and i've actually tested the theory and did very well, but I would like to pick up more things like this. So if anyone could share some thoughts or tips on this I would really appreciate it. Also, I've been looking at stocks such as: CVX, HAL, RIG, OXY, XOM, CHK.... out of all of these i think cvx seems to be the tammer one of these big boys... What do you guys think? When you guys trade the oil/energy sector, are you guys very specific? do you concentrate on crude oil, natural gas, or any subsectors within the oil/energy industry? And how are you guys correlate all the subsectors within it? For example, the exploration & Production, Integrated Oil&Gas, Oil Equiment&services, Pipelines? Do you have a chart displayed on the screen for each so you can see if any of the subsector is being affeted by eachother or by a given news? Finally, What's the best indicator for the whole oil/gas sector? I have a chart for $OSX, but was wondering if NYEID would be better.
if u trade those stocks with low volume u have to be prepared for periods of little or no activity... which is boring... which is precisely what a new trader should get used to if u want to trade a sector then u'll have to get to know it... make friends with it... take it out to dinner... talk with it...... stroke her hair gently while whispering in her ear... then ull know if she's the one for you.
============ Chief R Have looked at the the relationship between crude oil price, & oil stocks for many years , don't see much relationship there for a swing trader; just concentrate on the stocks/sector, myself. Done better in oil/gas sector this year than any other this year ; don't bother to listen to intraday news; like the market maker said ,'' you will get the news before i do.'' Also don't see how we can tell you what to trade; however don't see why a new trader should stay away from a strongly trending sector like this. Bottom line; best indicator for an oil/gas stock is that price [all time frames ] of that stock!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Reread that last one again.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Wisdom is profitable to direct
basically, uptrending stock/sector keeps going up until it isn't going up anymore. corrections happen when current risk is being transfered to those who are willing to take higher risk to reward. (last spring, and october). but know in uptrend, shortside risk always rises at faster rate vs. long side (counterintuitive), feeding the rally further in massive dosages of short squeeze. people wired to short strong stocks and bottom pick weak stocks. fundamentals don't equate to price action for this very reason ie government inventory data. one cannot fight the TREND. oftentimes, bearish news is fodder for more upside gain. this is wher eyou will hear wild claims of price manipulation, secret consortiums, conspiracy theory, evil gov'ts, etc. when in fact it is the paranoid who are covering en masse. this is a great time to be all in the long side. finally, months or years later, when long and short risk become equal is the top, usually after a climactic run up where shorts are finally burnt out. the public buys here.
==================== Actually will admit to occasionaly factoring in fundamentals; actually overpaid by a penny or so,XOM sector, but as Lights figured out , strong uptrend. Besides XOM station gives me free air for tires; not a stock tip, and never have bought in to the Subway sanwiches @ local XOM. Will leave that to the sellers
If you're new, stay away from daytrading oil/energy stocks. Very high chance you will get torn apart by them. You're going up against top equity traders/programs and dealing with the most brutal group of bastard specialists. Plus, it's old news.
Hydro is right, if your new dont do it. But if you have discipline there is no reason why you shouldnt have these stocks on your watchlist. High ATR plus good volume equal plenty of op on all time frames.
How much money you got..........wanna keep it????? If you want to play sectors and not get your ass mugged....stick to homes or semi's...and if we are reallllly lucky, maybe gold will poke it's ugly ass up again.