http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=apgSed0m_hkg&refer=energy As of 2pm EST, lite sweet crude down $4.25/barrel since friday close. In related matter, CNBC forced not to run crap holiday programming and have live anchors report on Gustav and oil.
Oil down to 111 after a major hurricane passed through the Gulf of Mexico, combined with the big up day (5 to 6 bucks) and then totally reversal last week or the week before (i cannot remember), has got to be a pretty omnious sign for any of the energy bulls. Maybe in hindsight everyone can look at the rising price of oil and say it was just a trade with a major trend. Sure, the growth in China and India pushed demand, but the way the price acts, it looks like a blowoff top to 145 for this past quarter century. Not that I think it'll be below 80, maybe ever, but oil pa is terrible. Will be interesting to see if there is much support at 110, which it seems it what level many of the bulls have been talking about lately. I thought we'd get at least a 5 to 6 point move, although I have no position. So this is pretty interesting to say the least. Looks like 100 should be in the cards relatively soon, imo.
110 support? Probably as effective as 140,30, and 20. Real support is created by commercial hedgers buying out of legitimate fear of rising prices, not round numbers.
Y I have no clue honestly, but 110 has been the level mentioned for weeks by a lot of traders so that was the only reason I said that. But seems highly possible that we can break through that tomorrow.
I think we are due for a dead cat bounce on Tues and Weds. This drop was a little exaggerated on thin volume. I'm looking for $2-3 from here, then out.
http://charts.dacharts.com/2008-09-01/2008-09-01 20-07 QM #F W.png Looks to me the 110ish level has been tested already. IF the bounce we got over the last couple of weeks was all oil could muster. It could lose another 12 -13 bucks, if this level don't hold.