Oil bubble

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by cakulev, Jun 20, 2005.

  1. cakulev

    cakulev

    Last week oil was up on a bearish report. Now is trading down on bullish report. However, this is the first time that I remember for the later to occur. For some time oil is not trading on the fundamentals. This is the time of mania, and anything is possible…
     
    #81     Aug 17, 2005
  2. housing bubble, credit bubble.
     
    #82     Aug 17, 2005
  3. cakulev

    cakulev

    If oil remain elevated add to the list stock bubble...
    For most of the year stock market and oil was highly correlated. Now this relationship seems disconnected. Oil is up almost 100% from last year and this is not “Goldilocks economy” as the talking heads would like you to believe.
    One theory would be that the major movers in the stock market believe that recent oil prices are speculative and will not be defendable.
    Either way something has to crash soon…
     
    #83     Aug 17, 2005
  4. izeickl

    izeickl

    Not sure if this has been posted but CNN has a chart indicating oil demand outstripping supply by a good 200 000 barrels a day.

    http://money.cnn.com/2005/08/17/markets/oil/index.htm

    The problem with relying on improvements in technology for the USA to reduce consumption is the US just makes bigger and more powerful cars with the tech, offsetting any benefits..As indicated that in the past 10 years USA average mpg has gone down rather than up.
     
    #84     Aug 17, 2005
  5. cakulev

    cakulev

    Well I don’t know about that. At 2.5$ gas if you have to buy new car are you going to buy some hybrid or a powerful SUV? People will switch to more efficient cars just like they did in the past when oil was high. They will invest in better thermal house insulation, more efficient infrastructure etc. The thing is, once this happen that demand is permanently removed, even if the price drops.
     
    #85     Aug 17, 2005
  6. cakulev

    cakulev

    #86     Aug 22, 2005
  7. cakulev

    cakulev

    #88     Oct 19, 2005
  8. #89     Oct 19, 2005
  9. #90     Nov 24, 2005