I said I would not be surprised to see oil fall into the 40s not that it should be; my rule #1 for trading is: The market is never wrong. So to me, if oil is close to 60, the is the correct price. OTOH-I don't see the fundamentals supporting the price. When and if it falls, I have no idea. And, I don't have a definition of a bubble other than that price is higher than I think it should be. But, my opinion means nothing, only the market has meaning. DS
markets are always right... and markets are always wrong. the nasdaq bubble was wrong. krispy kreme was wrong....... many many examples. i understand the gist of the axiom but i think people get a little dogmatic about it. is oil in a bubble right now... i would not agree with that assertion but it could be very soon. i also don't agree with the "oil is cheap crowd" (historically adj for inflation). it is the price differential and how quickly the price moves up that is important. also, the derivately affects are not comparable to the early eighties, debt levels are much more severe, currently. couple that with the geo-political risk out there and reliable crystal balls are tough to come by.
americans are gluttonous; there is no oil bubble; that's why we won't invade saudi arabia where most of the 9-11 terrorists lived. americans will permit anyone to f... them in the asses as long as they get oils in return.
not me bladerunner, I ride a bicycle..... In my opinion a bubble is only a bubble when everybody and their mothers start talking and speculating in the commodity. Just as in 2000 everybody got into tech stocks... Just as now, everybody investing in real estate.... With China, India and Eastern Europe going Capitalist at the same time, $105 is definitely not out of the question.....
When people want to buy, and prices are strong, that's when you sell. Almost all insiders sell into a rising market, but that is not proof these insiders don't expect higher prices ahead. I know, then why sell now, you ask. Because they can, and they are taking a profit, and they are not giving up any material control in thier companies or thier lives, plus, they know the inherent unpredictability of the energy markets.
http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2005/06/21/ap2103799.html Gains in global oil supplies will outpace increases in demand over the next five years, Cambridge Energy Research Associates said in a report that counters arguments that have pushed prices to an all-time high.
Some good points in this article. I see the the lack of refining capacity caused by nimby as an opportunity for profits in the coming few years, anybody else like Valero? DS