If it gets below $50 of course. Supply/demand problems remain unsolved, unlike 90s overproduction. So below $50 (if it gets that low), is a screaming long term (2 year+) buy?
Oil won't get below $50 because of OPEC. Oil is a screaming long term buy right now. What nobody is talking about is we will have entrenched inflation when we come out of this mess. My guess is certain commodities like crude and gold will start to run again when we start to see economic recovery. Gold is also a good buy right now. You downside on crude is limited because of OPEC and upside is potentially unlimited due to attacks on Iran, etc. Whats not to like?
Your reasoning is right except for the OPEC part. Most oil is produced in non-OPEC countries. There are many, many historical examples of OPEC cuts/increases that failed to reverse a trend.
OIL still overvalued @ $75 1. china has not bought oil since the olympics. 2. yes they will eventually buy, but remember that the global economy has come to a halt. 3. also did you guys forget how pissed you were when oil was @ $75-$80 level. oil will go to $45 before it goes to $120 4.this will be the worst holiday season since the 1970's 5. everyone who has a job be thankful. 6. start saving your money. forget about $500 botlles of grey goose and all that shit. start eating at home with your families that will become part of everyones lifestyle. 7. do you remember when an expensive pair of jeans was selling for $50 now they start off @ $200 The only recommendation I have is buy physical gold. here in chicago you cant fnd 24k gold coins. no joke i have tried. forget the futures prices
Disagree. The effective money supply has been shrinking for a while, and will continue to shrink for quite some time due to the ongoing economic difficulties. I expect to see tepid growth with significantly higher interest rates, with all that implies.