Oil beginning to threaten SIFs

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by nitro, Jul 6, 2007.

  1. nitro


    Hearing GS forced prop desk to cover 125K 800 SPX puts.

    If that is true, that explains the selling. Also, there may be more of that before tomorrow exp. If you can game when that put buying ends, SIFs is going to scream higher.

    #701     Oct 16, 2008
  2. nitro


    Obvious trendline break will occur if we go above about 915 SPX and a confirm if we go above 920. I will buy it hand over fist if the TL break happens anywhere close to or after 2:00 PM CT.

    #702     Oct 16, 2008
  3. nitro


    Where is the new bull likely to come from?

    Here are some of my predictions, but they are all tech:

    1) MSFT is working on quantum computers. This research is beginning to show non-trivial progress. If this pans out, I claim this alone will take DOW to 30,000.


    2) Medecine. Advances in medicine will within the next two decades start to see "cures" that our generation would consider miracles. For example, we are beginning to print rudimentary parts of organs using ink-jet printers using our own DNA. Advances like these alone would take DOW to easily 30,000. There is a slew of biotechs that are going to be the next GOOG.

    3) We are on the tip of a transportation revolution. We are probably twenty years from flying cars that we park in our garage that would completely free us from massive congestion, and will allow us to work not 20 or 30 miles from where we live, but 100 or 200 miles. Advances like this alone would take DOW to 20,000. We are maybe ten years from this.

    The list goes on. As Ray Kurzweil has said, we are at the cusp of the singularity. Buffet is right, even though he doesn't know why he is right.

    #703     Oct 17, 2008
  4. nitro


    #704     Oct 17, 2008
  5. nitro


    We saw a redemption on the rally.

    Hearing bank had to de-lever. That is going to be a weekly occurrence until it is flushed.

    But notice, it no longer dominates..

    #705     Oct 17, 2008
  6. nitro


    Upside calls in SPX and ES being sold against long underlying. Particularly the 1030 to 1075 strikes. That is a shift to short gamma Nov which is now the front month.

    That makes me believe that somewhere in that range is where we end Nov expiration. Seems conservative to me, and calls are being given away, imo.

    VIX getting blasted.

    #706     Oct 20, 2008
  7. nitro


    This day is deceptively bullish, not just on the day, but on the outlook.

    For the first time in how long, almost no back and forth volatility and no redemptions. The bulls are being stealthy.

    It could easily explode higher. Don't be caught asleep. The $64K questions is, where does the recession take us to, if lower from here at all?

    The other worry is NQ is lagging badly. That gives me pause.

    #707     Oct 20, 2008
  8. nitro


    Just above here would be a breakout, about 985 SPX.

    1020 would be next resistance. Then 1050.

    #708     Oct 20, 2008
  9. nitro


    This market is in the short term extremely dangerous to be short imo.

    The way it now reacts to bad news is extremely encouraging. If NQ gets a bid, watch out.

    #709     Oct 21, 2008
  10. nitro


    NQ now relative strength, and ES in near panic mode. Earnings from big techs have been surprisingly good so far.

    Once again, imo very dangerous to short in very near term. I look at this market in two ways. No one is forced to buy, hence technicals work on the way up. People are paniced to the downside or are forced to sell as a result of redemption, so that requires a longer term horizon and bargain hunting. Market extremely asymmetric in every dimension of analysis.

    Therefore, 985ish SPX is resistance now to the upside, and a breakout of that is probably extremely bullish short term to intermediate term. Hard to say where the downside support is because most of it has been panicked selling and bargain hunting buying into the selling.

    #710     Oct 22, 2008