"He who makes full assessment of the situation at the prewar council meeting in the temple is more likely to win. He who makes insufficient assessement of the situation at this meeting is less likely to win. This being the case, what chance has he of winning if he makes no assessment at all?" - Sunzi
Paulson, Bernanke, Cox are so godawful at explaining what the plan is markets are selling off. I believe they are tired and their minds are not functioning. If they explained it better, imo markets would be green! nitro
You know, it is really funny watching these discussions. You know what this is about? Skin in game for the bailed (institutions/banks/etc), and leverage allowed to the traders PBC (Paulson, Bernanke, Cox) by US gov, who is acting as the risk manager, who in turn are representing the investors, the tax payers! If you have ever negotiated to use OPM to trade, this should be familiar to you! LOL! nitro
1182 SPX is support. I fear for this market, and if we break that, we are in grave, and I mean grave danger. nitro
The good news is that 1182 SPX has held. The bad news is that the pattern forming around this support level is a continuation pattern, and that means down. There is a good chance that the breakout is to the upside though, and for that you need to look at SPX and ESZ8 in realtime. nitro
I don't see how we can prevent 1100 ish SPX. While I believe that a crash has been averted, even large companies with strong businesses are being affected by the credit crisis. When companies like GE are cutting off a buyback, be afraid, very afraid. Even a depression has a terrifying probability of occurring at this point. As a metaphor, we are in the eye of the storm, but the storm has weakened. That said, I still believe that investors need to continue to invest in good companies. Get a list together, and nibble slowly at them. Don't try to pick a bottom or over think it. The market will start to rise well before we see the economy turning. Time frame? Probably a good three to six months. nitro
I am 90 delta we don't get a resolution today. But I am also 90 delta that we will have one by the weekend. Imo, while markets should be defensive, it will be really hard for people not to make an exodus come 1 PM Central Time if nothing has happened. In spirit, the plan is already approved. As financial institutions fail in realtime, the government is stepping in with intense rapidity, e.g., WaMu. So frankly, I don't see the urgency being sold by Bernanke and Paulson. But I yield to their knowledge. 1182 SPX is the level to watch. I would sell with a purpose if we break that, with one eye on the news. nitro
Intraday, double top, lower high SPX. This is not good, imo. High percentage short ES 1202.xx. Wait for it to start going down. Best entry right below 1200 ES. nitro