Oil beginning to threaten SIFs

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by nitro, Jul 6, 2007.

  1. nitro

    nitro

    Don't get fixated just watching SIFs. Keep a close eye on QM.

    nitro
     
    #431     Jun 26, 2008
  2. nitro

    nitro

    All attempts at rallies have been rebuked hard.

    Too tough still imo, unless you have shorted into an obvious strong buyer. Stand aside. QM sells off with force and L SIFs is an easy trade. But no signs of it.

    nitro
     
    #432     Jun 26, 2008
  3. nitro

    nitro

    1 Million ES traded and we are just at 10:00 CST.

    nitro
     
    #433     Jun 26, 2008
  4. nitro

    nitro

    At some point, bargain hunters are going to ignore QM and buy equities. Nearly impossible as a trader to follow them in, imo.

    1305 - 1308 now becomes resistance, but if the seller(s) are gone, 1312.50 is the obvious first target.

    nitro
     
    #434     Jun 26, 2008
  5. nitro

    nitro

    1292.xx is support. Three handle stop loss, 1300 SPX profit target, but as always flexible based on price action. If filled and SPX goes above 1395, move stop loss to B/E.

    For pros only.

    nitro
     
    #435     Jun 26, 2008
  6. nitro

    nitro

    Cannot lose on the above trade anymore since stops go to B/E.

    Now, it is a matter of tape reading. The seller is going to try to scare longs out. But there are buyers coming in perforce.

    nitro
     
    #436     Jun 26, 2008
  7. nitro

    nitro

    If this 1292.xx level doesn't hold, all that is left is the double bottom lows, 1270.xx SPX. Below that, 1250.xx support, maybe. And below that, who knows.

    Grim.

    nitro
     
    #437     Jun 26, 2008
  8. nitro

    nitro

    Oil is relentless, and likely will continue it's march to who knows where.

    There are three possibilities that could stop the bleeding in SIFs, at least on the short term:

    1) It is EOM and EOQ. Institutional $ is going to come in any day.

    2) Russell rebalance. Watch out towards EOD.

    3) The big one, US currency intervention. I would expect QM to lose $10+ on that news, and SIFs to have a monster rally.

    Until then, grit your teeth. I would not buy 1270 SPX for the long term, but for a trade, it is a must buy (for pros only).

    nitro
     
    #438     Jun 27, 2008
  9. dont

    dont

    Where would you buy for the ultra long term 5yrs plus?
     
    #439     Jun 27, 2008
  10. nitro

    nitro

    How anyone isn't nibbling at C is beyond me.

    GM will not be allowed to go bankrupt.

    On both, buy the "bonds", not the common.

    People will tell you to diversify. In fact, on panics, you want to do the exact opposite and concentrate your portfolio (unless you are already rich.)

    China has 250,000,000 basketball players. How about selling them NKE shoes? Asians love to gamble. When they go on vacation, where will they go?

    Indians love entertainment and have 250,000,000 kids. What company is best poised to sell them that?

    Oil is finished as the dominant energy source, even if prices come down substantially. How about innovative alternative energy companies?

    The point is, unless you are a professional trader, you have to buy with courage but with a disciplined approach when there is blood on the streets. Accepting losses in the short term is very likely, since by definition you cannot watch the market on a second by second basis.


    nitro
     
    #440     Jun 27, 2008