Difficult opening imo. We seem to be capped on the upside at about 1360.xx, and there appears to be short term support 1342.xx ish area. We opened in the middle of that range, creating the greatest probability for whipsaw. Imo, this is a stand aside market until clarification occurs, which may not happen all day. Probably the greatest risk is to the downside intraday, unless you believe oil sells off dramatically. nitro
This is a very strange market. If NQ even has one hickup, this could get very ooogly. I don't like this market at all as a trading venue. This may be one of those days where, on the close ES is down 4 YM is down 35 and NQ is up 8. Unless you are an options trader short vega and scalping gamma, this market blows. Could be a SIFs-about-to-roll-Monday-effect. Might explain VIX. nitro
Definite signs of a kink in longs, and yet it goes higher. Sometimes that happens. You see something that should pause the long, and because shorts are getting into the market and then there is a buying surge, it causes a short squeeze. But imo, this is not a buy in SIFs, and oil seems to be the pivot long/short. nitro
Somewhat of the mirror image of yesterdays price action: today it is open higher and go lower, and everything is very mixed. Imo this is a particularly vicious quad expiration week and standing aside until clarification is the better part of valor. nitro
It is not so much what I look for in NQ to tell me about ES, it is what I look for in the entire market to tell me about ES. Perhaps you have heard the term, correlation is not causation. NQ and ES should point in the same direction and are not only highly correlated, but have similar causes in their reason for price action. Same goes for other instruments that could affect ES like oil, IRs, currency pairs, VIX, sectors, etc. What I look for mostly is for things that make sense, and act with more force when they do make sense to me, and tread with far more caution when it doesn't. It is part art and part science, which is why I do not currently have an automated SIF trading system. The key is not the analysis, as anyone with experience can do it. Imo the key is knowing what to focus on because rarely does the market make sense in entirety, which then leads to paralysis by analysis. Worse, causation is dynamic and not only changes from day to day, but potentially intra-day as well. News is the obvious king of causation in markets. NQ price action is just the obvious causation that should agree with ES price action, so I mention it more often than the myriad others I look at. That said, ES goes nowhere without NQ. nitro Note, "making sense" and causation are two powerful terms in trading. 99% of the traders that I know that are profitable always have a "driver" of the instrument they trade, i.e., causation. MMs are a slight exception to this rule, but even they would benefit from directional price analysis as the frequency of their hedging hugely affects MM profit.
1335.XX - 1338 some support, and the intermediate support is 1331 SPX. This has the making of a very bad day. I would not buy anything except 1331.xx, but it is quad week and that can have strange effects. If you want long, imo best to stand aside, otherwise selling mini rallies is odds on. nitro
Imo, the next attempt at 1331, don't buy it. If it goes to that well one more time, we probably go to 1320 or worse today. nitro