Oil beginning to threaten SIFs

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by nitro, Jul 6, 2007.

  1. nitro


    The simplest of technical analysis seems to work with a probability far greater than if it were random, especially on the longest of time frames. It may be self-fulfilling and that may be the extent of the "science" of it. But boy I have seen it work more times than I can count.

    These levels that I talk about are all based on the technical analysis aspects of DOW theory. The rest is fundamental analysis based on intermarket relations, direct or indirect. Then I take those two inputs and through "artistic analysis" give commentary based on experience on what I think the markets are focusing on. In other words, even though I don't talk about psychology, it is embedded in the commentary because I focus on the fear and greed that I think the market participants have in their current conciousness.

    Today, fear won out. That is was late in the day, we lost about 1.5% on SPX in the last 1/2 hour, bodes very badly for Monday. 1425 will be tested.

    #21     Aug 3, 2007
  2. nitro


    1425 SPX within a nose hair. So far all as expected. QM is down hard, also as expected, although I thought the short term was longer than this.

    This is the first real test, and if we close below 1425 SPX some will consider that technical damage. I think it is a serious signal and has my attention. 1400 SPX is now only 25 index points away.

    #22     Aug 6, 2007
  3. nitro



    That's all I can say. FED desperately trying not to panic into cutting rates. FFFs may force it's hand.

    I have no idea what the best play here is. Did you see options B/A spreads today? :eek: 1425 Seems like an imminent test once again, and another one of these events and 1400 will be tested. I suspect the FED throws in the towel somewhere around 1400 SPX, but who the hell can tell with this volatility what is right? I think these ranges the last three weeks are unprecented.

    I don't understand why QM is not < $70. If in fact people have no money to spend (because they can't even pay their mortgages), what is driving the demand for oil? I guess we drive even if we are broke. Alternatively, QM is just lagging and the truth hasn't sunk in yet in that market. SPX below 1400 and QM implodes.

    I would be very weary shorting the market if QM is anywhere near $60, or we have another weak jobs number, and we have another one of these events that takes SPX down below 1400. I am wagering the FED meets and just cuts rates in that event, and you don't want to be on the short end of that in the near term.

    :confused: nitro :confused:
    #23     Aug 9, 2007
  4. nitro


    1425 SPX will go tomorrow.

    1400 SPX seems imminent.

    QM in denial.

    #24     Aug 14, 2007
  5. nitro


    1425 goes. Technical chart damage now is at least debatable, and more likely beyond debate of the damage done. 1400 SPX only six index points away, and there is no denying that would be really bad from a technical standpoint.

    You have to buy here if you are a bull if you believe this is nothing more than a 10% correction and not a bear trend (which is not imo unless we close below 1400 SPX and stay there). If it closes below 1400 SPX tomorrow, bail.

    #25     Aug 15, 2007
  6. nitro


    When you see the whites of mens eyes on "wall street", you know what to do.

    #26     Aug 15, 2007
  7. nitro


    Synthetic FFFs trading at 5%. Got as low as 4.75% yesterday. Fed has effectively eased in it's own mind, but what people want is the cut. It looks more and more like it won't happen.

    When the Yen went through 1.14, SIFs went down hard, but are "recovering" nicely now. FED infused a measly 5B this morning, which to me the message they are sending says: markets land where they land. They are not cutting and plan to take out the liquidity out as soon as markets stabilize.

    VIX is going to open at 32+. I don't see how you can be long volatility here except as a momentum play. I would be selling straddles and buying strangles, but that is "bottom picking." Options expiration tomorrow will not help to stabilize. You are going to need nerves of steel to trade today/tomorrow.

    There is going to be some major shelling going on, but I bet you bulls win today. 1400 SPX is MONSTER huge support on the daily.

    I rarely bother with daily pivots, but today that may be wise to know where they are, including premarket.

    #27     Aug 16, 2007
  8. nitro


    So far as expected, although I expect SPX to close above or very near 1400...Not looking likely this late in the day, but stranger things have happened.

    I wish the regular guy knew about the SRS ETF. It would protect them from some devaluation of their home if they used it as a hedge. See more information here:


    It is very likely that RE prices on the average home is going to implode, and SRS is a great hedge.

    #28     Aug 16, 2007
  9. nitro


    Today was a day for the history books. Incredible is the only word that describes it.

    If you didn't come in with a plan, you got masacred on the whipsaws. If you really believed in your daily charts, and you read the tea leaves right and saw that this selloff was mostly liquidity driven, alll you needed was some cojones to put on at least a mild long position when it looked like SIFs were going to crater.

    This is no time to get complacent. Bears have lots of bullets left. But this victory was easily won by the bulls, as "predicted" by 1400 SPX support on the daily chart.

    #29     Aug 16, 2007
  10. nitro



    FED cuts window rate by .50 !!!!!!!!

    Get ready to rumble!

    NQ up 80 today. WATCH.

    nitro :eek:
    #30     Aug 17, 2007