Oil beginning to threaten SIFs

You know, this is interesting.

In order for the US armed forces to fight wars, it needs oil, lots of it. People have been wondering why the US gov has been storing oil in the SPR when the country is being hit with high energy costs. Hmmmmm.

But here is what is really interesting to me. If you are Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq etc, if you really don't agree with US policies, why not choke the US armed forces by reducing the oil supply? The answer is, $$$$ talks and bullshit walks.

In the short term, I am "short" the US armed forces and the US ability to fight wars, until they retrofit these war machines to use some alternative fuel.

nitro

 

The problem will be when they try to get a Mortgage. No more funny bunny stuff. They will have to have real income, great credit and will have to sell their existing house and have to have down payment.

John

 

The US Military uses less then one percent of the total USA energy consumption.

Someone posted an article about it yesterday.

John

 

http://www.energybulletin.net/13199.html

nitro

 

This rally is pure reallocation. It is meaningless imo.

I expect half if not all of SPX gains to be gone by 3:00 PM CDT.

nitro

 

I am a bit surprised. Market far stronger than I expected. Tomorrow is going to be very interesting unless some earnings news blows this market down overnight.

Longs should be extremely cautious here imo. At 1420 SPX we change gears, not until then.

nitro

 

In terms of time analysis, we are abit early for an all out down trend at this time. I say end of May or so looks more ominous. Banks are moving up nicely, and the SPX was way stronger than I expected. VIX still has downward momentum. Sentiment is just starting to be positive.

 

Imo, extreme caution warranted if long.

nitro

 

"WASHINGTON — Iranian media reported on Friday that there was no encounter in the central Persian Gulf between a U.S. Navy ship and a small Iranian high-speed boat in the central Persian Gulf."...

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,350470,00.html

nitro

 

Shift to a cautious neutral stance from extreme caution in SIFs. If NQ goes green, cautious buying is warranted. If NQ goes really green, it is buy hand over fist.

Note, this is all intraday trading and doesn't affect long term investors. Long term investors should be buying small shares in good companies with global exposure until we go through 1420 SPX.

nitro