Oil beginning to threaten SIFs

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by nitro, Jul 6, 2007.

  1. nitro


    IMO, oil at $72 now has a affect-the-FED delta that has to be strongly considered. Imo every dollar higher for oil from here on raises the implied rates as measured by FFFs.

    If we get inflationary numbers from the jobs report, and bonds sell off, SIFs may run into a strong headwind, even into earnings.

    Put QM and ZN on your screens.

  2. inet


    What is "SIF"?

  3. empee


    stock index futures
  4. nitro


    Looks like the markets don't give a shit. QM +$1, ES + 8 handles.

  5. Hypothesis, meet Window!
  6. last month CPI was 0.7% mom
    this month it can easily be more than 1%
    Fed wants inflation to clear debt
  7. you people have no historical perspective

    i said this months ago...

    the idea that oil prices and indexes have an inverse correlation is recent only. it work(ed) like a charm so people (naive) assume its a market reality.

    it's not

    in the LONG term, oil prices and equity indexes have a POSITIVE correlation

    feel free to look at a 50 yr chart to confirm that.

    traders that don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it
  8. whilser,
    expensive oil is good for stocks only because of one reason - inflations is not controlled any more. Fed prints like crazy - and all those money find their way into markets

    Zimmbabwe is the best market this year.
    Do you know why?
    USA can join them soon
  9. nitro


    It is interesting. QM is +1.25 today. I think it is part of the reason we are down this last week with oil > $76. My thesis is that it might be due to more than just the price. Back month QM futures are predicting a lower price than the front month(contango.) That means that the suppliers (OPEC Nigeria etc) are not motivated to pump up production, which means even higher prices in the short term.

    I am not sure about all of this affecting SIFs with what weight, but it is hard to believe that it doesn't. I mean, how can Bernanke even think of cuttting to help the RE market with oil at nearly $80 :confused: You are damned if you do and damned if you don't.

    The complexity of this market is reaching critical proportions imo. Volatility should be pacing at 25 VIX soon imo, but with the bull trend in place. Chomp on that!

  10. nitro


    Yowsa!!!!! What a turn around in QM! :eek:

    This gets interesting....This last hour SIFs may cut their losses in 1/2.

    #10     Jul 26, 2007