Oil at $50, Heading to $45 or Lower, WOW WELL AFTER THE FACT its down $100

Discussion in 'Trading' started by S2007S, Nov 20, 2008.

  1. S2007S


    Another GREAT call, if any of these FUC$ing stupid analysts call for lower oil im going to go crazy, how the FU$K can they come out now and say oil is going lower, where are the FU$K heads when oil was at $125+ saying this, How anyone could not see oil dropping below $100 was an IDIOT, OIL was in A DAMN BUBBLE but of course no one believed it. Aside from that my $50 price target was hit and im lowering it even more, this time oil is headed to $25 a barrel, gas at the pump should come down to 1997-1999 lows around $1.00-$1.25 a gallon in most cities by mid 2009. Demand is not there and will not be for years to come, PEAK OIL, haha, ok peak oil rightttttttttttt. Oil is going even further down, you will not believe it when you see gas at decade lows in about 18 months.

    Oil at $50, Heading to $45 or Lower
    Posted By:Ariel Nelson
    Topics:Stock Market
    Sectors:Oil and Gas
    Companies:The Williams Companies Inc | Weatherford International Inc | El Paso Corp | Consol Energy Inc | Peabody Energy Corp

    Oil is pushing to new lows and is down nearly $100 / bbl from recent highs. Can it go any lower? Some data seems to say yes.

    The crack spread between gasoline and oil futures, for example, has recently gone negative (chart below), implying the cost of gasoline is less than the raw material it is made from. Does that mean that gasoline is too cheap or that oil is too expensive?

    John Kilduff, SVP and Co-Head of MF Global, told me that the crack spread is unbelievably negative, hovering right now at negative $7. "Historically, that number should be between positive $5-6," explained Kilduff. "Gasoline prices are way ahead of crude right now. At comparable levels, we project oil at about $46 / bbl," adds Kilduff.

    Looking at retail gasoline prices, you get similar results. Below are two charts: one showing the national average price of retail gas / gallon (per the EIA) and crude oil, the second shows the relative price of one to the other in $/bbl. Over the past 10 years, the trend slopes downward, showing that gas has fallen faster than oil. The last time oil was near $50 /bbl, retail gas was about 10 cents more per gallon than it is today.

    The average multiple of retail gas to crude oil for the past 10 years is 1.9. With the average national price of gas at $2.03 / gallon as of Nov 17, oil would need to be $46 / bbl - the same as Kilduff's estimate.

    Using the 20 year average of 2.2, the price of crude should be even lower - $39.52 / bbl! Rebecca Jarvis reported on CNBC this morning that Deutsche Bank is projecting oil at $40 /bbl as well.
  2. Yet another typical "cut and paste" article by someone that admittedly doesn't trade for a living. Do you do anything else but sit around watching CNBC for most of the day?

    What do you do for a living?
    Are you still in school?
  3. eagle


    I see, you don't believe in analysts but anyway you still listen to them. Put them on "Ignore" list. If there is any credibility on the analysts then they won't be working for regular wage.