Oil at $5 - $10 a barrel ?

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Humpy, Aug 13, 2009.

  1. Humpy


    According to Bloomers, Robert Prechter sees oil falling to $5 - $10 a barrel !!

    Is he a nut or is it worth taking note of his opinion ?

    Anyone heard of him ?
  2. acepowerdrive

    acepowerdrive Guest

    that is saying we are currently overpaying oil by 1000%...

    it cost the saudis $10/barrel so they are making juicy profits more profits than any oil trader or trader here.

    murray t turtle likes this.
  3. hah hah hah hah hah — good one
  4. Humpy


    Quite a lot of stuff on Google e.g.

    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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    This article has no lead section. To comply with Wikipedia's lead section guidelines, one should be written. See the lead section guide to make sure the introduction summarizes the article.

    In 1979, Robert Prechter postulated that social mood drives financial, macroeconomic and political behavior, in contrast to the conventional notion that such events drive social mood.[1] His description of social mood as the driver of cultural trends reached a national audience in a 1985 cover article in Barron's.[2] Prechter coined the term "socionomics" and in 1999 published an exposition of socionomic theory, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior.[3]

    Since then, the counter-intuitive premise of the socionomic hypothesis—that in contexts of uncertainty, endogenous processes (not exogenous causes) create patterns of social behavior—has gained attention in academic journals,[4][5][6] books,[7][8] the popular press,[9][10] at academic conferences[11] and in research funded by the National Science Foundation.[12]

    But no opimion on his opinions
    If he is anywhere near right the A rabs will be jumping outa their jellabis
  5. Prechter co-wrote with A J Frost and first published in 1979 the
    'Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior '
    [ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle ]
    in the text 1987 was noted as the year there'd be a major bottom or top
    in 1987 Prechter forecast the '87 crash, tho he wasn't the only one to do so
    his call resulted in fame, fortune and interviews
    Prechter's been notoriously incorrect in many of his EW calls - haven't we all
    (i know of some of them since the early 80s) and has for years expected the
    'end of the world as we know it' which the current predicament has come
    close to fulfilling
    his calls have been tracked for some time here: http://yelnick.typepad.com/
    (see the archives) along with Neely 'master of the EW' who to date has called
    for the decline of the DJ/SP500 five times, does he do crude ?

    as to the $5 - $10 crude, my last call was a top at $76 and i think crude
    will drop to $34 possibly $21 - fibo (EW) numbers - will update next month
    here's my Jan/09 post: 'crude oil to $21 . . . how about $13 ?'
    i'll say that to date, crude's either putting in an inverted H&S (EW AB) or
    A and B of an ABC, or even completed an ABC correction that will see a
    new high, maybe even hit fibo # $89

    attached is an Advanced GET EW labeled chart
  6. S2007S


    I don't know about $5-$10 a barrel but I can say $30-$40 is coming over the next 6-12 months.
  7. Various oil production costs....


    Oilfields Estimated Production
    /source Costs ($ 2008)
    Mideast/N.Africa oilfields 6 - 28
    Other conventional oilfields 6 - 39
    CO2 enhanced oil recovery 30 - 80
    Deep/ultra-deep-water oilfields 32 - 65
    Enhanced oil recovery 32 - 82
    Arctic oilfields 32 - 100
    Heavy oil/bitumen 32 - 68
    Oil shales 52 - 113
    Gas to liquids 38 - 113
    Coal to liquids 60 - 113

    Point....The time to buy inelastics is when they are selling below their costs of production....in combination with extreme negative public sentiment....
    murray t turtle likes this.
  8. Most of those production costs are - of themselves - based on the cost of energy. So they would be affected by a fall in oil as well.
  9. If you ask me is this possible, i would say yes. On the other hand, It is highly unlikely event, price patten and political pressures are too great to push up energy cost.

    Don't you know, gasoline taxes are major source of income for both Federal and States governments.
  10. At $5 the Chinese will buy it all, drain their dams and lakes and store it.
    #10     Aug 13, 2009