Oil and debt. Oil moves the industry. Debt makes it "possible" to sell the goods produced. So oil and debt rules? Actually oil acquired by debt?
Yes. However, up until the 1950s, the US was the world's largest exporter of oil. Not coincidently, it was also the world's largest creditor nation. It is also no coincidence that Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard around the same time that US oil production peaked: After Oil production peaked and the death of Bretton Woods, the banking system, beginning in the 1980s up until recently also went through a tremendous amount of deregulation. As I have said before in other posts, global wage arbitrage and technological production efficiences masked a lot of inflation that we would have otherwise experienced. Much of the prosperity of the last 30 years, I would say, was a false prosperity driven by an asset based debt fueled economy. And now we import 2/3 of our oil, and it seems that private sector credit has peaked as well for the time being. Not difficult to guess what the future probabilities are.
Wrong.....about Oil. I deal with oil. China and the Arabs control oil. China has taken 17 Billion of our debt dollars and purchased some of the most prolific oil producing fields around the world, including the Ramala (SP?) in Iraq and the new find in Brazil by Brazil Petro. Second, we do not drill enough on our on land. The 3.1 billion dollar find out in the Gulf was by BP. Not by XOM. Obamanation is against drilling, hence the state of Cali is in a depression. The US dollar is being phased out to be the key currency for Oil trades in the NYMEX DUBAI. The overall, Arab Nations and Opec are in the process of replacing the "Dollar" with a basket of "Hard Assets" and Currenies to peg oil against. The only thing the US has at the moment is Consumer Spending, DEBT! Our manufacturing base has been exported to the tune of about 70% if not more. THe Unions, the Taxes, and the new Administrations "SOCIALISTIC" policies will drive even more manufacturing off shore. THe cheap Labor is not the key reason manufactures have left, its cheap labor, low taxes, low energy cost, less govermental intrusion, and cheaper materials that have caused the shift in manufacturing overseas...not Cheap Labor alone. So, my friends.......I hope your in an industry that will weather the next 10 years of Inflation, weaker dollar and higher cost of living. If not, your fucked because OBAMA isn't gona save you.
I think you two are actually in complete agreement. Misthos point -- I think -- is that since we do not produce oil in significant quantities (in relation to our usage) we are about to be crucified. I agree with all that has been said here except that putting a date on the coming collapse is, as always, nearly impossible. I think knowing it is virtually inevitable and reacting to markets as they unfold is the right course. I don't like an approach that thinks that you can take positions based on "inevitable" events. If you do that what becomes just as inevitable is the high level of heat that always seems to come soon after the entry.
"GOD" rules this nation - and by GOD I mean "Gold, Oil and Drugs" You may take that to mean: "Money powers, Energy powers, and Pharmaceutical powers," but, to others it is literal..Gold, Oil and Drugs (Illicit - because the profits are so great!). -gastropod