Good Morning Goodday, With a couple of days to go till month end I thought I'd give you some performance analysis based solely on your posted results on this thread since the beginning of August. My very determined 79 year old mother gave me a card today with just 4 words on it. Explanation Expectation Experience Expansion Fits here perfectly. EXPLANATION I have already explained the Profit Factor and shown how to work it out. I will also explain why the CR is unavailable. EXPECTATION PF above 2.0 and CR above 50 on a sample of 1000 trades. EXPERIENCE Currently your PF is 3.85 which makes you on the way to being a super trader. You just need maintain above 3.0 for 1000 trades. I expect you to maintain this based on your other figures. You have a win ratio of 88.7% which is brilliant. You had 33 wins in a row and only 2 losses in a row from 71 transactions. You had 63 winning transactions and 8 losers. Your worst drawdown lasted 7 trades and experienced a 5.03% drawdown. That means you went in and recovered from your worst drawdown in 7 trades. This is rare. Under 25 is good. Under 10 is superb. These figures say expansion is now a reality. You just need the confidence a larger sample of trades will give you. EXPANSION I cannot tell you how to do the next part as it requires complex maths to calculate. (It also took me 18 months of hard work to figure it out.) Your Compound Ratio is 79, so it is well above the critical 50. That means you can increase lot size rather quickly when you are ready. That just needs more trades to know that consistency is established. You have the 2 key factors in place. A PF above 2.0 and a CR above 50. Expansion means deciding what % drawdown you can accept. Here's how it basically works: You maintain your trading at or near these PF and CR figures. Using your own trades posted so far but adding the CR you can see how easy the real money is made ONCE YOU ARE CONSISTENT. Makes no difference whether you throw darts, swing a pendulum, ask a monkey, or analyse chart patterns to reach your entry and exit decisions. In the end you just need a good PF tied to a good CR. After your 71 transactions here are your expanded results. 5% drawdown = $5,000 profit 10% DD = $15,000 profit 15% DD = $33,000 profit 20% DD = $57,000 profit 25% DD = $100,000 profit At 25% DD you would be now trading at 50 lots. You would need $2000 per lot to fund. Yes, that means that your August trades tied to the CR would have made $100,000 with a 25% max Drawdown. The key however is to grow and expand gradually, this way your decision DNA will not be flooded by fear and anxiety. So, all looks well Goodday, just keep going and I will check on you next month.
Thanks, My Guardian Angel. Please don't hesitate to stop by before the end of next month, if only to say hello.... As to the "decision DNA" comment, I am amazed at your uncanny ability to understand psychological issues in trading. Given your mathematical proclivity, I assume your academic background to be in Sciences or Engineering, not in Psychology. Once again, thanks for your kind words of encouragement and for stopping by.
Short 5 ES contracts @ 1306.00 Closed at @ 1305.50 for net profit =$107.50 Thank you opening gap.....