This stock appears to be in a somewhat heavy downtrend, only weakening slightly in the past month or so. I don't think I would purchase it until I saw some indication of the stock price turning around. Perhaps a couple March 40 Calls would be a good option (no pun intended ).
Im going to make a call on this one. There are some magic numbers when it will be good to buy this one. The TNX has to get to 5 and above. The margin debt numbers need to get to 24% year over year change. Actually, I believe we are already there with the margin debt. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^tnx Thats when all the stars will align in the heavens and then the markets going to correct hard. I mean *hard*. There is something about the TNX over 5 that this market doesnt like. The debt shows a lot of overconfidence. When the TNX goes over 5 and the debt goes over the 24% yoy mark, then the market will contract *hard*. When these factors align themselves and the market is in flames then come back here and look at Arkansas Best. The main reasoning is that I believe the trucking stocks follow the economy better then any other stock. The overall stock market only finds out later at the last minute that there are problems. So when the stock market is in flames, it means the economy has bottomed and its only uphill for Arkansas Best. There might be a little downside from here. The TNX needs to get up just a smidge higher and then we have bear market mode.
I like your theory but I agree it is not time just yet. http://www.monitordaily.com/app_enews/news.asp?news_ID=18149
Nice call. ABFS is up 5+% today. From 12/13, this would have made a nice swing trade. It popped 10%. 10% in one month always makes me happy.
I did a comprehensive review of Arkansas Best. At the start of any recession or downturn, this is when the company is right at the lowest. Then it will go up from there. Conversely, usually the overall stock market has topped right at the start of any recession or downturn. Then over the next 6-8 months, this trucking company will keep ramping up while the other stocks go into the tank. At the end of the recession or downturn, then this will be at its highest where as the market will be at its lowest. The overall market is starting to meander to the downside. Then there will be one day where the whole thing tanks. The economy is bad right now and the trucking industry has realized this. However, all those folks holding stocks like Apple and Rimm havent realized it just yet. Slowly the reports will come in and the disappointing earnings calls will mount. When the general market realizes the downside, then it might be time to get out of these trucking stocks... The only thing keeping the market out of a short term dump is low oil prices and the TNX being under 5. When either of these factors go to the upside, then we will see the dump.
PS- Arkansas Best's main line of work is transporting new cars to dealerships....thats why this company predicts recessions and downturns so well....