If you really are trading in this style though Apak then i would strongly advise that you dont do the 'buy and hold' just yet though, but instead trade off the 15min /30mins / 1hour and daily charts, and buy after steep dips of over 3dollars. That way even if you do go into a loss ofr abit, it will still be very very likely that after falling so much so steeply that the market will have to rebound and pullback when the people who were short on that down move start to cahs in their trades. For example i bought oil about 1hour before the lcose yesterday at $55.33. Slightly too high i know, but bought it becuase of the $3s straight down spike as can be seen on the 30mins/1hour chart. And you can see by just using your eyes that the spike down is disproportionate to the previous movements, and can see that over the last few weeks when spikes like that at that angle came what happend next... My target for this trade is 56.92, but have put my stoploss at 54.19 for this trade since my oil contract ends on wednesday, and so i cant buildup a longterm position even if i wanted to. And also because as the guy aboe said the ''real'' impact of the market crash hasnt actually been felt yet by normal people.. So far all that has actaully happend is; Lots of rich people who had invested lots of their money in companies have lost alot of their money, as the value of those companies has now been deemed by the majority of people to not be worth as much as they were a few months ago. The media has been using this to get loads great gripping stories though and so theres been scare mongering for the last few months. Most of the pulbic havent got a clue about how the market actually works. Tey think just because markets crash it mans traders lose money, since they dont even know the basics of 'short selling'. SO the market crash hasn't actually affected them yet, they still have the same life as before. Just everyone has an opinion on the markets now since its been all over tv! But over the next few months people are going to start feeling slightly poorer if they lose their job, since all around the world the people who have these opinions on te market crash, even though dont understand it, tey are all gna have the mindset of ''save our money because we heard that bad times are coming''. SO they spend less cash in shops, shops make less money, and so tey have to make people redundant to keep making money. And the cycle then goes on, that no these people with no job go on benefits, so taxes get higher for people who do work, and the unemployed have less money to spend, so more job cuts come. Lovely cycle, really beautiful... lol So oil probably will go slightly lower..., but it does have a base level, probably at about $40, that it wont be able to go though. Even if the dow keeps going down till it shows 'zero' when people click on a graph of the dow, the stockmarket may have died, but there will still be people alive. And oil is a physical asset, an asset that is in shortage, something that only a few counties have in a part of the world thats extremely unstable, and so they can and would be able to set a price floor if they choose to.
Ive attached chart to show the pullback after every steep spike. Its abit rough to understand but the dot scribbles and arrows should be good enoughh... lol
Quick question......why on EARTH would you buy oil at $57 when any chart looking back at the oil run up to $146's (front month when oil was at high) would show the run origination point at $47's. Why not just patiently wait for price to come down to the PROPER place of sub $50's to start looking to play the LONG side??? To get a precision kill in life you do need to exercise patients.....let your future kill walk into your sights.....don't go chasing it!
The last 30 days of that oil chart definitely look like it will continue going down. Apak better get ready to hold for a while still. The weird thing is that even though he knows he has to hold he is still celebrating about a movement up of 1 dollar. This thread ranks with inexperience.
I dont know if i misread the title somehow, or if he mistyped it... But if he ''Bought oil'' at $57, he is now in a loss of $2s. S its not really celebration time yet untill oil moves back over $58s..
what in the world are you telling me that you can call a bottom here if that was true I would eat your shit but that ain't true is it, my target is 85, my stop 29 go hunt my stop
by the way spanish, I have to level with you. You and me are very different, we don't have even in the slightest similar way of trading I saw what you are doing, and to me that is the most difficult thing in the world you are a discretionary trader to the point where your every trade is based on the FEEL of price action feeling is something I CAN NOT quantify PS: I am a day trader, this OIL play is just something on the side
Well, I went LONG the QM at $47.80 in February 2007 and I went SHORT the QM at $147.75 in July 08......so where do I bring the spoon? Spend MORE time in charts and less time in chats, get the precision to make a better decision! :eek: