Official Outlook and Predictions for 2008

Discussion in 'Trading' started by cszulc, Dec 31, 2007.

  1. cszulc


    Time for your official 2008 predictions for the market. What do you think the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq will end up year-end? It might be too early to decide, but, hey, just guess.

    I'm guessing we'll have a moderately higher year, maybe 6-7%. Not very bullish on the first quarter, and after we see the volatility come down after we receive official writedowns from banks, I think we'll do a little better. Tech will have a nice run, beating out the S&P and Nas.

    I think the S&P will be at 1575 (about a 7.4% return), Dow at 14250 (7.5%), Nasdaq at 2900 (about 9.5%).

    What do you think about 2008? Bullish, bearish, neutral, optimistic?
  2. Daal


    if the broad averages have a real rate of return in 08 I will be blown away, maybe NDX but I consider that a sector play
  3. This chart demonstrates my thoughts. Sorry, its a rough sketch.
  4. cd23


    I annotated your chart and also noted the volume for 2008 as well.

    I do not see your second leg as a possibility. I also feel the summer will be flat after two legs down (a small breather in between).

    Absence of commercial paper being rolled and the annuals coming in with the appropriate mark to markets (or models in worst cases) will deepen the initial drop off out of the H&S.

    The dominos started rolling about June 06. Superimpose housing sales, starts and inventory to see how the three graphs flow. Add in the credit card and employment conditions as the secondary industries shut down because they are no longer feeding housing. the financial sector which works on commissions has few sales alternatives for those no long working the turf.

    The quant era also ended about the time the housing inventory started building. This is an "establishment" that took a quarter century to install and build. Dismantling it is going to be hazardous duty pay for a lot of brass. There will be no novelty in "securitization" for quite a while. On the otherhand all the hedgies are facing the same way and the investors do have to get paid out if and when they realize they are in a dead end situation. ceck out the top 100. It will be a continuing combo of write downs and sovereign capital coming in and taking over the reigns to manage the infusions. Congress screwed up on this one. They did oil correctly by defusing China and the port operations got caught in time but they blew it on sovereign capital.

    Oh the fed debt. As the government runs out of takers (see recent auctions) turning over debt will lead to longer term debt packages and high frequency offerings.

    By the time summer ends, it will be fairly clear that the election is up for grabs and no one will be taking office until after the end of the year. Uncertainty drives the markets down.

    The last half of 2008 is where the present administration is going to pay a lot of dues. Iraq is going to be a lot more expensive to get out of and there is going to be a lot of increased continuing expenses for vets in many long term care requirements (including post trauma for unwounded, family therapy all over the place (See Ft Hood ramp up when it is announced) and care for all those involved in the evacuation).

    Health care, education and SS are going to take a lot of heat as well. Ivy league endowments are going to have to play by the 501 (c) (3) rules starting sometime soon as well. Investing is going to be one tough cookie for them.
  5. I did a little modification to the spy chart. I took out all the indicators, all the moving averages and just made it a raw chart without any markers or volume.

    Anyone who has been trading for a while knows what comes next. We all have been there.

    This looks like to me that the price has topped and its going to come back down. I believe the downtrend might take some time, a year, perhaps 2 or 3.

    I remember 2001 and 2002. Neither of those years were particularly happy years for the finance world or the traders except if you were a bear.

    This time around Im going to be a bear and ride 'er back down. Im all set....ready, go.
  6. pneuma


    I think it will be another wonderful year to post profits - abet through the short rather than the long.

    Much the same as 01-02 I would predict.

  7. Here is my last post for 2007.

    This is how 2007 ended with the majority of stocks making new lows (by a wide margin) and declining volume beating advancing.

    Notice how a lot of traders have suddenly disappeared from the board. No more partying at the trading desks like last year. Utter and total silence on elitefader.

    Where are ye elitefader?

  8. set up a new thread with a poll. SP500 2008 will Close above 1600, below 1200 , etc.

    Don't really care about opinions on ET. Most of it is nonesense. However would like to know what the collective herd mentality is thinking.
  9. cd23


    The EOP just announced that Bush is going to meet with his financial advisors for the first time in his admin.

    He is scheduled to speak 07JAN08 and 28Jan08, fortunately I am leaving the US on the 8th and returning on the See thread in the WSJ or economics forum.

    My chart was a little too conservative. Tug it down a little bit. The 2nd was a nice beginning on the way down.
  10. ehorn


    While I generally agree with this projection, I am curious, with ever increasing monetary expansion (ongoing reflation in US and globally), where do you anticipate all the excesses in liquidity will go?

    Do you feel liquidity will continue flowing into... things (i.e. commodities, tangible assets, etc...)? and/or will investors see equities as a psuedo tangible asset?

    I know personally, in a stag, leading to hyper-inflationary environment (which, based on an Austrian view, I feel we are in), I would rather own "things" as opposed to promises.

    Any thoughts appreciated.
    #10     Jan 5, 2008