% of winning trading using TA

TA doesn’t predict, neither is TA a Trading System (TS)

If Technic ~ Gk: tekhne = art and Analyze = examine, then TA is
the art of examining PriceTime Movement (PTM)

PTM is irregular
Subjective TA is the ‘only’ form of TA that will yield positive results
‘only’ empirical methods are useful

PTM = Change
the intention of the ‘best’ TA is to successfully anticipate Change
a TS is designed to take advantage of Change
the TS uses B/S entries/exits based on the user’s PTM TA

“. . . what is the % of winning trading that one who uses TA has ? ”

how long is a piece of string ?

 

http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Truthiness

It's easy to determine whether position sizing works or not, unless one is just too lazy to search the Net.

 

The old "should we predict" argument in another guise.

predict
v 1: make a prediction about; tell in advance; "Call the outcome of an election"

If one believes that the prediction is absolute then TA doesn't predict.

If one believes that the prediction is statistical then TA does predict.

ie, if Y happened in the past after X with a probability of ZZ% then, with a certain confidence, there is a probability AA that it will repeat in the future (until the markets change in such a way that the statistics change).

Because of the second definition most of us who make our living in the markets are willing to enter or exit a trade. Nice post by the way, Whitster.

 

i am surprised to hear this from you, kiwi.

what is the probability of a move in the same direction after X moves in that direction?

Can TA be used in a subjective manner---yes.

Is TA statistically relevant and testable--- no.

imho

regards, surf

 

Are you sure that the big firms and hedge funds don't use TA? It's possible that they do, and (obviously) don't want to tell anybody.

 

At the end of the day, one sees what one wants to see. If you want to prove TA doesn't work, you can with statistics. If you want to prove it can, likewise.

-empee

 

Here is a COMPLETE method being presented that would be on the side of "TA is not gambling"


http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=84098