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# Odds of this happening in poker

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by hapaboy, Nov 4, 2007.

1. ### hapaboy

Okay, so a couple of weeks ago a cousin of mine gets pocket aces THREE HANDS IN A ROW!!

What are the odds?!?

(And yes, he wasn't cheating.)

Edit - Not only that, but he got pocket aces a total of five times that night over the course of 6 hours. And they all held up! This is in a cash game, 10 players.

2. ### thetrendfollowe

Iv got a better one.

My mate was playing at a casino the other night.
His hand was a good one.
Ace and Queen. Suited.

And guess what happened next.
ROYAL FLUSH on the flop!!!

First time Iv ever heard about a royal flush happening.

What makes it even better is that one of the other guys had a king high full house. So he betted like a champion. Only to lose out to a Royal flush. How unlucky.

3. ### CaptainObvious

I've seen some wild shit at the Craps Table. Saw a guy throw a consecutive sequence of 6,8,6,8,6,8,6,8. It was spooky. Of course I wasn't on those points.
Saw another old timer make a \$100.00 box car bet three times in a row and the shooter rolled box cars all three times. The table was going wild. Pit boss didn't look so thrilled.

4. ### EricP

The odds of being dealt pocket aces are 1/221.

Note that this is calculated as follows:
Odds of getting an ace on first card = 4/52
Odds of then getting ace on second card = 3/51
Overall odds = 4/52 * 3/51 = 1/221

The odds of being dealt pockets aces twice in a row = 1/48841 (i.e. 1/221 * 1/221)

The odds of being dealt pocket aces three times in a row = 1/10,793,861 (i.e. 1/221 * 1/221 * 1/221)

The odds of being getting a royal flush on the flop is 1/649,740

Calculated as follows:
20/52 * 4/51 * 3/50 * 2/49 * 1/48 = 1/649,740

Note that the first card is 20/52, since any A, K, Q, J or 10 will start the royal flush. After the first card, the suit must match on subsequent cards.

So, to put things in perspective, it is much more rare to have pockets aces three in a row, than even flopping a royal flush. Put another way, if you are a poker addict, and play one hand of poker every minute, 24 hours per day, 365 days per year, you could expect to wait <b>20.5 YEARS of continuous poker play</b> before the first time you receive pocket aces on three consecutive hands.

5. ### gunslinger

Meh, 20 years.? Ivee been playing online for 4 years, and have close to 700k hands.

Never AA 3x, but have had 3 royak flushes.

6. ### jzlucas

Had AA 3 times in the first blind (15 min) one tourney last year. Cracked ALL 3 times... first out.

Last week:

Me - KK
Them - AA

I flopped a set KKK
They turned a set AAA

Nice.

7. ### AAAintheBeltway

I'm not a stat expert but I believe you have calculated the odds of drawing pocket aces on successive hands incorrectly. Each hand is an independent event. Once you've drawn pocket aces, the probabililty of that happening is 1.0, because it's already happened. So the correct answer is 1/221.

Theres no way the odds of drawing pocket aces 3 hands in a row is 1/221

... Ive been playing a lot for the past 3.5 years and the most improbable situation was playin at a 2.5nl game in AC where there was a raise , 5 callers, im in the big blind with aces... it was a loose crazy game so i take the 30 dollar raise to 220 dollars.... everyone folds except for the next player who goes all in for over 1,100\$..... I ofcourse call, we both have pocket aces..., and for whatever reason we ran the cards out, didnt chop their, and i end up hitting a flush to take a pot close to 2400\$

9. ### EricP

I think you are misunderstanding the question.

You are correct, for a different question: Once you draw pocket aces twice in a row, the odds of getting pocket aces on the next hand is 1/221.

However, the question I answered was what are the odds of drawing pocket aces on three consecutive hands. In other words, what are the odds of drawing pocket aces on the next three consecutive hands? The correct answer for that question is 1/221 per hand, or (1/221)^3, or 1/10,793,861

10. ### forex-forex

The guy with the full house should have checked at most, the king he need in his hand was on the table.

#10     Nov 7, 2007
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