What would you say the odds are of a "flash crash" (3% or more drop during a one hour period during RTH) later this week? None of the economic data has been good lately. Also, the indices seem to have broken some support levels. There also seems to be anticipation that the jobs report won't be any good.
3% in one hour isn't a flash crash. The defining feature of the flash crash was its speed and the lack of orderly trading in NASDAQ stocks and PG. As to 3% down in 1 hour, I would guess 5%.
The exact odds is 17.82% using the Shroner-Rugdolf statistical calamity formula. Now what can you do with it?
A couple times today I thought one was about to begin, then the selling slowed and some buying came in. I'm not sure how close we were. Maybe some traders more in tune with individual stocks can shed some light on how close we were.
Just pointing out that market conditions seem similar now to those leading up to May 6. The Dow had lost several hundred points from the high in the days leading up to the May 6 crash. The crash confirmed the down trend we have been in since late April. Presently, Dow has lost several hundred coming off an intermediate high less than the flash crash high. We are either heading down after a lower high, which a flash crash would confirm, or the market may be preparing for another low volume, slow move.
That's not a crash. In the flash crash the market fell over 100 ES points in a couple of hours, almost 10%. 3% in a day is not remotely near a crash. Also, since when has a crash ever been slow? Crashes are fast by definition, so "flash crash" is redundant, like "wet water" or "hot flames".