Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Art Collins, Dec 30, 2006.

  1. Art's futures biases for Dec 18.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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    According to the CzarCharts, we should expect up-moves in both the index and the bond complexes for Tuesday.
     
    #381     Dec 17, 2007
  2. Art's futures biases for Dec 19.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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    For Wednesday, expect up action across the index complex. Conversely, the CzarCharts are suggesting across-the-board bond weakness.
     
    #382     Dec 18, 2007
  3. ammo

    ammo

    art,do you keep a chart or log on howoften you're right and wrong?
     
    #383     Dec 18, 2007
  4. Engraved on his heart! :)
     
    #384     Dec 18, 2007
  5. Quote from ammo:

    art,do you keep a chart or log on howoften you're right and wrong?
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    etuserisme said:
    Engraved on his heart! :)

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    couldn't have said it better myself
     
    #385     Dec 18, 2007
  6. Art's futures biases for Dec 20.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

    ______________________________________________

    The best bet on the CzarChart board for Thursday is the short side of the bond complex, particularly the 30-year.
     
    #386     Dec 19, 2007
  7. Art's futures biases for Dec 20.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
     
    #387     Dec 20, 2007
  8. Art's futures biases for Dec 24.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

    ______________________________________________

    Expect to see continued weakness in the bond complex during Monday's abbreviated session.
     
    #388     Dec 21, 2007
  9. Art's futures biases for Dec 26.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

    ______________________________________________

    Although nothing in the CzarCharts is un-contradicted, I'm going with the majority of the index signals for Wednesday. The time between Christmas and New Years tends to be one of the most bullish weeks of the year.
     
    #389     Dec 24, 2007
  10. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    Hi Art,

    I saw your note on the seasonality. I was wondering if you factored this in. I posted this in another thread here:

    If you bought the SP 500 on December 17th or the next trading day, and held it for the next 10 trading days, you'd have

    - Positive results 80% of the time

    - The SP 500 would have appreciated at a rate 5 times greater
    than an average 10 day holding period.

    - The last loss for this holding period, was 1% was back in 1980,
    and was also the largest loss since 1942.

    - Results for this seasonality period are similar over the time
    periods of 1990 to date, and 2000 to date.




     
    #390     Dec 24, 2007