Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Art Collins, Dec 30, 2006.

  1. This was right-on-the-money for the Russell 2000.....both longs and shorts could have made money today with decent timing. 3 pm and later was wild in the futures. I was short and made some bucks.
     
    #21     Jan 8, 2007
  2. Art's futures biases for Jan 10.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.


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    For Wednesday, we’re seeing more indicators joining the sell chorus in the indexes. While the either-or signals are less negative in the bonds than the previous day, they are now being supported by negative open-to-close indicators in all markets. (Specifically, you have two days in a row in which the market closed higher than the open, which is a fade indicator).
     
    #22     Jan 9, 2007
  3. Art's futures biases for Jan 11.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.


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    The bonds continue to flash sell signals, although not as emphatically as yesterday. The indexes however, are building a bigger downside case. The Russell presents the best shorting candidate for Thursday.
     
    #23     Jan 10, 2007
  4. Art's futures biases for Jan 12.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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    The indexes remain locked in sell mode. I would be especially inclined to press that direction in the event of another steady-to-sharply higher opening. I don’t think the bulls will get away with the same steady-through-the-day scenario yet again, but obviously I’ve been wrong before.

    The currencies are flashing solid buy signals, particularly the Swiss franc.
     
    #24     Jan 11, 2007
  5. Hey Art, since the Dow made new record highs yesterday, some traders may dispute that "sell mode" analysis ! However, I do see the Russell 2000 indicates weakness with that score of -4. ER2 futures have gotten pretty wild lately.....a sign of a top forming ?
     
    #25     Jan 12, 2007
  6. syswizard wrote
    Hey Art, since the Dow made new record highs yesterday, some traders may dispute that "sell mode" analysis ! However, I do see the Russell 2000 indicates weakness with that score of -4. ER2 futures have gotten pretty wild lately.....a sign of a top forming ?

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    the russell is the best shorting candidate for 1-12.
     
    #26     Jan 12, 2007
  7. Once again, got my head handed to me in eRL futures...expected some profit-taking around 3:45 pm and then WHOOSH, it was like a tsunami wave of buying. Thank goodness I use stops religiously. Boy, does this period of time ever "feel" like late 1999....with the bears totally demoralized....and valuations just going thru the roof with no fundamental or economic basis. All of the bad reports today in tech land from SAP, AMD, etc....totally ignored. This is getting REALLY crazy.
     
    #27     Jan 12, 2007
  8. Maybe it's called a "short squeeze"? Many, including Art and me, thought that after a few days of higher closes that there would be a sell off. I console myself with the thought that if even an expert such as Art can get it wrong then there is still hope for an old duffer like me.

    My problem is that I refuse to acknowledge what I'm seeing and sit in stunned disbelief watching the screen waiting for logic to surface. Of course on days like today it doesn't. I really must start using stops but my trouble is that I have a psychological aspect to my character that doesn't like to lock in losses. But it's only money and as Art says: "There's always tomorrow." Or in this instance, next Tuesday.

    Regards,

    ETUser
     
    #28     Jan 12, 2007
  9. Everyone's anticipating a sell off. But as Warren says, "The markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
     
    #29     Jan 12, 2007
  10. Bingo....and oh was that ever so apparent in late 1999 !
    Late today, I was like "where is all of this buying coming from ?". It's so apparent we are still in a huge liquidity "bubble"....tons of money looking for a place to be parked.
    I could get crushed here, but I am going to continue to probe the short side and keep those stop losses tight.
     
    #30     Jan 13, 2007