Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Art Collins, Dec 30, 2006.

  1. Art's futures biases for May 15.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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    The currency sell flashes are the most attractive signals on the board for Wednesday. Note the -6 either-or reading in the Swiss franc.
     
    #191     May 15, 2007
  2. Art's futures biases for May 17.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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    There are solid buy flashes across the bond complex. The 30-year is the best bet. Note that the two buy signals in the less-frequent second box include a cap bottom off a series of down-driving days.
     
    #192     May 16, 2007
  3. Art's futures biases for May 18.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
     
    #193     May 17, 2007
  4. Art's futures biases for May 21.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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    We're back to seeing unanimous buy flashes across both signal groups in the bond complex. This is occurring at a short term oversold time frame.
    Perhaps dovetailing nicely with that is the setup for an overdue break in the stock market. The Czar signals aren't overwhelmingly bearish, but their negativity is not contradicted. I would be especially inclined to sell a sharply higher opening.
     
    #194     May 18, 2007
  5. Art's futures biases for May 22.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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    Despite having turned the day-of-month corner from the short to the long side, the calendar indicators are still net negative. This is in tandem with solid bearish readings in both other signal categories in all three indexes. Expect a down move on Tuesday.
    Also look for continued upside action in the bonds.
     
    #195     May 21, 2007
  6. Art's futures biases for May 23.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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    Short signals in the indexes are less insistent than they were yesterday, and there is one contradicting buy flash in the S&Ps. Nevertheless, I think the setup is such that it's ok to follow a mere majority consensus. Obviously if you treat each market separately, you have clear-cut sells in the Nasdaq and Russell. The extent of the S&P's dissention is merely a neutral reading.
     
    #196     May 22, 2007
  7. Art's futures biases for May 24.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
     
    #197     May 23, 2007
  8. Art's futures biases for May 25.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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    One lone dissenting vote aside, the indexes signals are insisting that Thursday's break will be reversed on Friday. This shouldn't chafe too much at anyone watching recent stock action. Lately, all breaks have been meant to be bought. It's unlikely we;'we'll see much action overall, however, given that we're going into the three day holiday weekend. But as I've consistently maintained, ours is not to reason why in any event.
    The bond signals are solidly bullish as well.
     
    #198     May 24, 2007
  9. Art's futures biases for May 29.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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    As Friday goes, so goes Monday. After the long weekend, people are most likely to resume activity they were doing prior, i.e. in buying. Note that all indices are confirming the long scenario in all major signal categories.
     
    #199     May 25, 2007
  10. Art's futures biases for May 30.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

    _______________________________________

    The indicies are probably due for a down-move in line with their majority signals. When viewed as a separate entity, the Russell is giving non-contradicted sell flashes.
    The bonds are posting buys, primarily on the strength of the contrarian 2 same-way open-to-close indicator. The 5-year is getting added long side support from the either-or box.
     
    #200     May 29, 2007