Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2006

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Art Collins, Jan 2, 2006.

  1. re above livermore....
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    thought so.

    talk to you again following your next snipe
     
    #311     Sep 14, 2006
  2. KS96

    KS96

    What time do you expect this notorious sell-off?
    We are all short on and waiting... :D

    I am joking... I have to say that I also see very bearish signs in the indices I'm following (eurostoxx50 & smi) since yesterday late afternoon.
     
    #312     Sep 14, 2006
  3. ks96 wrote

    What time do you expect this notorious sell-off?
    We are all short on and waiting...

    I am joking... I have to say that I also see very bearish signs in the indices I'm following (eurostoxx50 & smi) since yesterday late afternoon.
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    it's 12:30 as i write this:
    it's amazing how the stock market goes into these periodic multi-day-mini-rallies where nothing seems to phase it and all breaks are shallow and false. though i'm short and determined to stay that way as long as my stops survive, at this point, i won't be surprised if we again see such confounding action today. maybe the biggest problem is, everyone who is contacting me also wants to be short--never a good sign. It's not over till it's over though, and should we get a rally, there's always tomorrow.
    art
     
    #313     Sep 14, 2006
  4. KS96

    KS96

    well...I am mostly trendfollowing... but the signs I see since yesterday are overwelming so I decided to get short on my shortterm timeframe (against the longerterm) and it's working ok so far. Europe has sold off since the morning, and no signs of recovering yet. If US follows now, I will be king.

    The worst that can happen is to me with my current entries is to breakeven... and maybe miss the rest of the rally (in this case, I would knock my head on the wall for not staying with the trend).
     
    #314     Sep 14, 2006
  5. Art's futures biases for Sep 15.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
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    I will continue to stay the bearish course in the indexes. A high percentage play, especially given the uptrend, would be to sell a sharply higher open. We may well see this setup develop as reports will be hitting the market an hour before the daily opening.
     
    #315     Sep 14, 2006
  6. gkishot

    gkishot

    Which one of three should I look at for tomorrow bias?
     
    #316     Sep 14, 2006
  7. gkishot wrote

    Which one of three should I look at for tomorrow bias?
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    the russell is the weakest.
     
    #317     Sep 14, 2006
  8. Art's futures biases for Sep 18.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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    Sometimes it doesn't come out the way you might be hoping.
    This is the perfect time of year for a stock market retreat. For days, I've been getting persistent sell signals. I was able to take small profits off the gap-higher opens, and I'd be the first to root for that being the mere start of something big.
    Unfortunately, Monday's signals aren't complying. We're pretty much neutral across the index board, which maybe is saying that the miniscule down pressure we saw on Friday was about all we're going to get for now.
    So I won't be shorting the indexes on Monday. Naturally, that does not mean that Monday will not turn out to be the sizeable down-move a lot of us have been looking for. (Almost everyone who has been talking to me is bearish, and maybe that's the whole problem in a nutshell).
    What it does mean is that I don't have any justification for taking such a flyer. There is actually a better bias across the bond complex, and it's pointing upward. On Monday, I'll therefore be looking to enter the long side of the 10-year notes.
     
    #318     Sep 15, 2006
  9. Art's futures biases for Sep 19.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
     
    #319     Sep 18, 2006
  10. Art's futures biases for Sep 20.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
     
    #320     Sep 19, 2006