Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2006

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Art Collins, Jan 2, 2006.

  1. Art's futures biases for Aug 18.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
     
    #281     Aug 17, 2006
  2. Art's futures biases for Aug 21.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
     
    #282     Aug 18, 2006
  3. Art's futures biases for Aug 22.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

    ____________________________

    There are definite cross-currents for Tuesday, particularly in the indexes. The calendar side urges longs based on the day-of-month indicator moving into it's near-month-end buy mode.

    The less frequent indicators, on the other hand, are posting some convincing sell signals. All three markets had five up days in a row followed by a down one as shown on the second line of the second box. That historically portends a good bet for selling the next open. The S&Ps are adding further support to that argument with their cap top formation. That market also adds the only non-neutral either-or signal to the equation--it's a sell.

    In short, the balance tips only slightly to the sell side, but I'm willing to buy the argument. Remember, the calendar tendencies can easily be a day or two off and we have had a pretty overbought environment of late.
     
    #283     Aug 21, 2006
  4. Art's futures biases for Aug 23.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
     
    #284     Aug 22, 2006
  5. Art's futures biases for Aug 24.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
     
    #285     Aug 23, 2006
  6. Art's futures biases for Aug 24.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
     
    #286     Aug 24, 2006
  7. Art's futures biases for Aug 28.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

    ______________________________

    As we approach the normally-bullish end-of-month timeframe in the indexes, the other indicators are pretty pretty-much joining the chorus. Expect a rally on Monday—perhaps a significant one.
     
    #287     Aug 25, 2006
  8. Art's futures biases for Aug 29.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
    _________________________________________________

    What a difference a day makes.
    The indexes have flipped from a long-to-short bias overnight. As a strict mechanical trader, I’m in no position to argue with them. I’ll be selling the S&Ps from the open; adding to the position on signs of weakness.
     
    #288     Aug 28, 2006
  9. That was a very nice call Art. I'd been thinking they might be more lagging indicators but when there is a strong bias +4 as in Friday it certainly panned out today.
     
    #289     Aug 28, 2006
  10. Richard Rimes wrote
    That was a very nice call Art. I'd been thinking they might be more lagging indicators but when there is a strong bias +4 as in Friday it certainly panned out today.
    ----
    Thanks Richard!
     
    #290     Aug 28, 2006