Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2006

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Art Collins, Jan 2, 2006.

  1. setharb wrote

    hi art ... perhaps this question was asked by me months ago but with all the volatility in the OIL and METALS this yr

    have you have tried to get the daily
    Biases for these markets also?
    ___________________________________
    seth
    I've never gotten the 6 indicator system to test well in those markets. actually, i have problems fitting most systems to new york markets. don't know what that means. some people would say it's because they're new york markets.
    i did look specifically at the 2005-2006 timeframe for the reasons you stated. still no dice--i believe only the heating oil gave an overall positive performance due to a very good 2005 reading.
    this makes for some gray area issues. are they not performing well because the idea , though widely applicable, is never going to fit every market? or is it just that you inevitably catch some markets over-performing and some under-performing in any given timeframe? again, since i've never been able to make metals or energies conform, i have to say it's the latter. but your question did make me wonder how the six indicator has been performing in my targeted markets in 2006. (those results would obviously be akin to strict real time as the system was perfected in late 2005).
    overall, the news is good. the currencies are the one bad area. again, should they be de-emphasized or is this just their under-performing time? i'd go with the latter on that one.
    but as you can see, they've been doing very well in the indexes. the mini russell in particular has been on fire. even figuring a $20 slippage-commission edge per mini contract, you still would have been making over $80 a trade.
    thanks for inspiring me, seth.
     
    #251     Jul 28, 2006
  2. SEE PREVIOUS POST FOR HOW THE SIX INDICATOR EITHER-OR SYSTEM HAS PERFORMED IN 2006
     
    #252     Jul 28, 2006
  3. Art's futures biases for Jul 31.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias
     
    #253     Jul 28, 2006
  4. himself

    himself

    Hello-

    I am new to this thread.

    In your tabulation of results what gave the entry signal?
    I see your daily table where it lists "Either-or -biases". Is it a certain numerical total of them that gives the entry signal?

    For purposes of your tabulation of results, did you ignore signals given by "Infrequent Biases" and "Calendar biases"?

    How do they fit in?
     
    #254     Jul 28, 2006
  5. himself wrote
    ________________
    Hello-

    I am new to this thread.

    In your tabulation of results what gave the entry signal?
    I see your daily table where it lists "Either-or -biases". Is it a certain numerical total of them that gives the entry signal?

    For purposes of your tabulation of results, did you ignore signals given by "Infrequent Biases" and "Calendar biases"?

    How do they fit in?
    ________________________________________
    sorry himself,
    I guess i didn't make that clear enough for those who haven't been following this. each individual component in the first either-or box is assigned a +1/-1 value. all 6 are added together. when you get a net plus, it's a buy bias, a net minus is a sell.
    i have posted 5 year historical results earlier in this blog and also on elite trader.com for the top either-or box and the other two. (actually, there's a full article on the calendar biases coming out in august futures magazine). if you get biases pointing the same way in all three, you get especially good historic summaries. maybe i'll do a futher update on the reamining two boxes in the near future.
    thanks for your interest.
    art
     
    #255     Jul 28, 2006
  6. himself

    himself

    Are the Net Profit figures in your tabulation based on entering at the market opening, i.e., 9:30AM Eastern time?
     
    #256     Jul 28, 2006
  7. himself wrote
    __________________________
    07-28-06 09:11 PM

    Are the Net Profit figures in your tabulation based on entering at the market opening, i.e., 9:30AM Eastern time?
    ________________
    Correct. All posted marekts and systems follow the regular pit hours only--no Globex.
     
    #257     Jul 29, 2006
  8. himself

    himself

    And I take it that they are closed out on the same day they are entered, either by the protective stop or at the market close?

    [I am sorry Art that I did not include this question in the above question]
     
    #258     Jul 29, 2006
  9. himself wrote
    _______________
    And I take it that they are closed out on the same day they are entered, either by the protective stop or at the market close?

    [I am sorry Art that I did not include this question in the above question]
    _______________________
    that is also correct. (sorry i didn't anticipate the question).
     
    #259     Jul 29, 2006
  10. ScaleOut

    ScaleOut

    Ok, biases are kewl, but how about some ongoing education from a top researcher?
    so
     
    #260     Jul 29, 2006