Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2006

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Art Collins, Jan 2, 2006.

  1. Art's futures biases for Jul 10.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
     
    #231     Jul 8, 2006
  2. Art's futures biases for Jul 11.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
     
    #232     Jul 10, 2006
  3. Art's futures biases for Jul 11.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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    As many of you know, the indexes are my personal primarily traded vehicle. I wish I’ve had something more definitive to offer there than what I've been posting of late, but as the floor axiom goes, you just can't force trades. I can't ignore the persisting long biases in the either-or indicators. They've been flashing accordingly for several days now.
    Some people may have elected to trade just off that window, which is a valid choice. You can see past postings of how the six combined signals have historically fared as a stand-alone system. I choose, however, not to ignore the calendar biases for similar reasons. You can see that they too have held up as stand-alone indicators through the last several years.
    It's interesting that the end result has been sideways action. We are indeed experiencing summer doldrums. I'm still anticipating a significant down move rather than a rally, although "significant" is admittedly pretty subjective.

    The best setup for a decided signal, however, would be a continued mini up-move at least through tomorrow. That could turn most of the indicators bearish in line with the rather powerful calendar sell signals by as early as Thursday.
     
    #233     Jul 11, 2006
  4. Prevail

    Prevail Guest

    yesterday there were unanimous sp readings for the upside. glad to see it closed to the upside.
     
    #234     Jul 12, 2006
  5. Art's futures biases for Jul 13.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
     
    #235     Jul 13, 2006
  6. Art's futures biases for Jul 14.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
     
    #236     Jul 13, 2006
  7. Art's futures biases for Jul 17.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
     
    #237     Jul 14, 2006
  8. Art's futures biases for Jul 18.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
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    Two out of the three of the major signal classes are concurring that the next significant move in the indexes should be to the upside. This is dovetailing with an extremely oversold technical condition. Fundamentally, one could ask how much remaining downside "shock" would be conceivable verses a more likely scenario of a lessened impact due to perceived diplomatic breakthroughs.
    Again, I'm strict mechanical player, and I offer the above as mere explanations or justifications for what I'm technically bound to follow anyway. (Sometimes mere talk-throughs are helpful to traders). The situation does seem to be pointing to an anti-perfect storm of sorts, particularly since the chronic bears seem to be stepping up their frenzied happy dances.
    I'll probe the indexes to the upside tomorrow using relatively tight stops. If that doesn't reward me, I'll anticipate doing the same on Wednesday barring significant signal changes.
     
    #238     Jul 17, 2006
  9. Art's futures biases for Jul 19.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
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    Maybe these indexes are in more trouble than I'm giving them credit for. I can't follow my plan to continue trying to buy them in the face of the predominantly negative signals. Perhaps Tuesday's half-hearted rally is all they have for now on the upside.
    On the other hand, notice the uncontested buy signals across both the bond and currency complexes. Clearly a better bet.
     
    #239     Jul 18, 2006
  10. Art's futures biases for Jul 20.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
    _____________________________
    Finally! Consistent sell signals across the board in the indexes! I will definitely be probing the short side on Wednesday, although I am going to temper my profit-potential-enthusiasm a bit. As I've noted several times, it's rare that one significant move is immediately followed the next day by another.
     
    #240     Jul 19, 2006