gatorplease wrote my intent on this site is to provide raw stats, much like al o'donnell does in his fabulous pointspread playbook--my bible during my--ah--degenerate gambling years. as we go along, i may suggest what i'm doing re weighting and combining the information into actual systems, but there are problems with that sort of free output which tend to make it a lose-lose situation for me as well as the reader. systems are frustrating little animals, they often look bad even when they're fundamentally good, people don't have nearly the patience with them they should, and all the other pitfalls about system touting could fill a book. which by the way, i'm frantically writing at this moment--very tight deadline, so forgive me if my responses lately seem less than literary. anyway, to answer your specific question, every individual component is weighted plus 1 for buy bias, minus 1 for sell. the bottom columns add them together, so you can see whether we're leaning bullish or bearish for the next day on a combined basis. i welcome anyone who wants to publicly track my results. i'd suggest more weight is given to bigger numbers--+/-3 or more. testing shows an overall improvement when you wait until that point, although there are many facets to analyzing a system performance, so that could be an arguable point. (better return on accounts, but possibly not enough to justify the sharp decrease in total trials). this is intended to give you a first volley report of which way to approach markets. it suggests getting in on the open and out on the close. again, perhaps as we go along, i'll suggest stops and/or other qualifiers. for now though, i hope enough people are satisfied with seeing raw stats. i know i would be. it's the kind of thing i enthusiastically devour in my quest for new trading ideas. happy new year again everyone--here's hoping we get opportunities out the ying yang. art
OK, I'm still a little confused. Sorry. You divide the numbers into 3 sections. So I am taking the combination of the 3 sections? Or the Net total? {Infreq Bias net + either or NET + Calendar} OR????? Add All individual components together? The net totals are different. Sorry for the confusion.
Art's futures biases for January 5. A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
The raw stats are interesting but what is the performance when positions are only taken when the bias hits a certain level such as 3 or 4? Very interesting but the avg trade needs to come up. Thanks.
gatorplease wrote The boxes encompass three different classes of tools. the last group is totally irrelevant if you're not trading the indexes. if you are, they're merely indicating longer term trends that your other numbers are operating within. i increase my size slightly if my monthly and yearly signals are both agreeing with the direction i'm otherwise taking. the top six are bedrock signals--each component flashes daily. sometimes the total is 0 or no bias, but i treat that block as a separate methodology from the second box which are mainly fade indicators. (which flash less frequently--usually in extreme circumstances). look for the second series to have bullish significance if they're flashing off relative low prices, and bearish if you're near highs. i use the second totals to influence my trading size in what the first box is telling me, and i tend to not follow the first box unless i'm getting +/- 3 or better ratings. hope that helped art
Art's futures biases for January 6. A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
Art's futures biases for January 9. A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
Art's futures biases for January 10. A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
Art's futures biases for January 10. A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.