Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2005

I fancy following this thread, nice work Art.

 

zastaber wrote

thank you z.

("fancy", eh? you must be british)

 

hi art ... how much do you let the "bias" influence
your trading style intraday ?

is it not better to have no opinion ... going into the day or have you backtested enough to see this "bias" gives you a slight edge when managed properly ?

( sorry if this question was already answered before here on the thread ... )

 

No, but close, Im in Europe.

I trade very mechanical, and I find some of your parameters close to what I use, even tho I do not arrange it as systematically as you do. Pherhaps I should

Interesting read anyways. Maybe I should try to grab some more of your writings.

 

I Europe to. Czar scary name where I live.

 

Here are my futures biases for November 7.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.

 

setharb wrote

i think no actual human opinion is always a good idea. that doesn't mean that any biases or rules you find relevant could not be built into your system.
i treat every system as a stand alone unit. sometimes ideas overlap and sometimes they don't, but the actual orders are always outright even though it seems sometimes like i'm spreading. (getting less long then flat then slightly short).
i treat the daily biases as a stand alone system. right now, i'm taking signals only in the indexes if the count is at or more extreme than +/-3. again, compared to my inter-day systems, which let's say would be maximum short in the s&Ps, the 8 indicator idea might mean i'm netting out at full short minus one long resulting from that system. but i like every system to be it's own stand-alone universe, if i'm making any sense here.

 

fuhrer wrote

fuhrer isn't?!

 

I found an interview with you Art, in I-do-not-know-if-I-am-allowed-to-post-the-name-here-trading-website.
Poor sound quality, but great stuff.
PM me guys if you want the link to the audiofile.

 

Here are my futures biases for November 8.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.