Art's futures biases for Feb 8. A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias. ______________________________________________ For Friday, the best bet is the long side of the bond complex.
Hello Art - Is there any reason why you don't include the Dow? Also, I am new to this thread. Any way to re-post on how you calculate it? Or do you have a spreadsheet you can attach? Thanks!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'm Art Collins, a published book author, lecturer, and a frequent contributor to Futures Magazine. I'm also a 20-year Chicago Board of Trade member, professional futures trader and mechanical system advocate. I'm here to share system ideas and for camaraderie, something I miss from my days on the floor. I've decided to keep a daily journal on Elite Trader as a way to generate more feedback on my system ideas. Each day, I will post my daily market biases to keep the discussion going. Here are some of my core beliefs. Feel free to add feedback, call foul on me, or whatever. 1. The average trader can't succeed unless he or she is 100% mechanical. Most of us can not "hear what the markets are telling us" because for all practical purposes, the markets ain't saying squat. 2. Human psychology tends to be drastically out of synch with what is needed to trade successfully. 3. When one combines mechanical with discretionary, one tends to get the worst of both worlds. 4. Simple is best. 5. Basic elements can be combined to create greater wholes. 6. Day trading can work, but there are inherent problems compared to other types of trading. The main problem lies in the relatively small trading arcs compared to trading costs. 7. Ideas have to test well over a fairly wide array of times and markets in order to be considered trustworthy. 8. When you do decide to trade a mechanical system, you must adequately budget for it. You must also follow all signals exactly as mandated. How do I go about building mechanical systems? I identify simple market biases, some of which are not good enough to overcome trading edges. By assigning them +1/-1 strength/weakness values, however, and combining them with other such indicators, you can often get a whole significantly greater than the sum of the parts. I will be showing this on a step-by-step basis, using TradeStation performance summaries to substantiate my contentions. Undoubtedly, my programming skills are short of the levels many of you are at. I intend to keep expanding my abilities rather than justify my limitations. Just to reiterate though, Iâve been privy to some very esoteric complex systems and some very basic ones. The lion's share of profits has come from the latter, at least in my humble experience.
qtip wrote Hello Art - Is there any reason why you don't include the Dow? Also, I am new to this thread. Any way to re-post on how you calculate it? Or do you have a spreadsheet you can attach? Thanks! ------------------------------------- hey q-- not every market tests well, which is one problem i have with the dow. the other is that i don't like the contract size. when you compare ticks to trading costs, (slippage-commission), you get very little bang for your buck. the best market for that sort of thing is the russell. it moves slightly less in a given timeframe than the S&P and yet each point is worth twice the spoo value. ($100 vs $50). re your second question--i've reposted the preliminary info i used at the start of 2007. i've had a few personal issues since then that has made it harder for me to be as active in the research dept, but that won't last long. (it never does). in the meantime, i think the above will give you a decent overview. thanks for your interest
Thanks for repeating your trading beliefs, Art. For the info of those following this forum, I own and have read Art's recent book "Beating the Financial Futures Market" and found it great. For anyone interested in mechanical systems trading, I highly recommend that you buy the book.
Art's futures biases for Feb 11. A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
Art's futures biases for Feb 12. A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
Art's futures biases for Feb 14. A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias. ______________________________________________ For Wednesday, there are strong sell signals across both the bond and currency complexes.
Art's futures biases for Feb 15. A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias. ______________________________________________ For Thursday, the currencies are showing a sell bias, particularly the euro. the indices are in limbo, although it's interesting that the majority of the signals have shifted to the short side. Given the fundamental issues and the fact that the market has rallied fairly quickly into overbought territory, one might expect softness for Thursday.