Odds Czar: Simple Biases In the Futures Market: 2008

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Art Collins, Dec 31, 2007.

  1. Art's futures biases for Oct 24.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
     
    #271     Oct 23, 2008
  2. Art's futures biases for Oct 28.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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    For Tuesday, expect a rally in the bond complex.
     
    #272     Oct 27, 2008
  3. Enjoy your posts and sentiments.
     
    #273     Oct 28, 2008
  4. Art's futures biases for Oct 29.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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    The bond complex is flashing buy signals for Wednesday. This may or may not dovetail with my impression of what is probably around the corner for the stock market.
    Tuesday saw the second time this month that the Dow closed in the approximate +900 points for the day range. The fact that the two days represented the first and second biggest single-point day gains in history, (dramatically eclipsing the third highest) and that this is happening in the middle of a market melt tells that it represents a buy-side panic that differs little from it's sell-everything-now downside counterpart. In other words, people are suddenly scared they may have missed the move already. They haven't, as they're likely to find out sooner rather than later. The usual function of bear market rallies is to provide more grist for the downside mill. In other words, Tuesday was an opportunity for a hostile market to trap evermore longs. The last episode was followed by an almost equal down-side route the very next day. I suppose nothing is going to be quite that easy, but maybe that's part of the market's latest double-reverse-get-them-with-their-pants-down yet another time. With the Fed making their announcement, the day's market action is going to be interesting indeed.
     
    #274     Oct 28, 2008
  5. Art's futures biases for Oct 30.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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    I'll reiterate my feelings about Tuesday's monster stock rally:
    In order for it to have real meaning, many people would have had to correctly entered on that day, a mere single day after the current credit crisis low was made. If you can imagine millions of people being able to someday tell their grandchildren "it was a scary time, but your grandpa's timing for re-entering at bargain-basement prices was picture-perfect" then I guess you can believe that the low is now in and that it was followed by a parabolic up-move. That would also mean that a five week down-churn was answered with a half-V bottom snapback. If you can believe all that, then I guess you can whistle past the possibility of more heavy shoes dropping.
    I can't. I've often stated in this site how little my opinion means (because my only money-making talent has proven to be mechanical system trading). But as you can see in the CzarCharts, the indices agree with my bearish opinion at least for Thursday. Expect down moves in those markets, particularly the Russell. Also look for the bond complex to rally.
     
    #275     Oct 29, 2008
  6. German Trader wrote

    Enjoy your posts and sentiments.

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    Thanks Mr. G Trader. Always appreciate such feedback.
     
    #276     Oct 29, 2008
  7. Art's futures biases for Oct 31.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

    ______________________________________________
     
    #277     Oct 30, 2008
  8. Art,
    I just bought three more of your books, hope you make a few $, you deserve it. Sorry, I bought them used (the Dutch in me), you might not make enough money to buy lunch but I like to think that I at least bought a cup of coffee for you. lol.

    When I finally make a few $ with your shared knowledge it'd be an honour to buy you lunch one way or another.
     
    #278     Oct 30, 2008
  9. sam mcgee wrote
    Art,
    I just bought three more of your books, hope you make a few $, you deserve it. Sorry, I bought them used (the Dutch in me), you might not make enough money to buy lunch but I like to think that I at least bought a cup of coffee for you. lol.

    When I finally make a few $ with your shared knowledge it'd be an honour to buy you lunch one way or another.



    ______________________________

    maybe we can go dutch. (get it?)
    i appreciate your sentiments sam. i'm sure we'll meet soon.
    art
     
    #279     Oct 31, 2008
  10. Art's futures biases for Oct 31.

    A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
     
    #280     Oct 31, 2008