Odds are that gamblers misunderstand system

Discussion in 'Politics' started by LongShot, Dec 26, 2003.

  1. bobcathy1

    bobcathy1 Guest

    Actually, it is less than 50% chance of living.....but I did not want to scare you too much. Look at what I said, it is not a man made hazard like a bus or a plane. It is nature.
     
    #11     Dec 27, 2003
  2. Sorry bobcathy, but you'd make a lousy actuary. The odds are obviously NOT 50/50 that a randomly selected person will live another 24 hours. That's absurd.
     
    #12     Dec 27, 2003
  3. although it's possible, i highly doubt there's less than a 50% chance i will live tomorrow.

    if there is a 50% chance of living each day, then there is only a .1% chance i will live for 10 more days. lol
     
    #13     Dec 27, 2003
  4. bobcathy1

    bobcathy1 Guest

    Actuaries deal with probability. The probability of living is pretty good. On average people live to 65.

    The chance remains at 50/50.
     
    #14     Dec 27, 2003
  5. if, as you say, the chance of living a day is 50%, therefore, the chance of living for 10 days is .1%; how is the average life expectancy 65 years??!

    you mentioned 1 or 0 earlier. if i buy a lottery ticket, it can be a winner or a loser. would you say there is a 50% chance i win? no.
     
    #15     Dec 27, 2003
  6. in a few min i will edit this post and tell you, on average, what the % chance of dying each day is (has been), with an average life expectancy of 65 years. it will be way less than 50%.
     
    #16     Dec 27, 2003
  7. bobcathy1

    bobcathy1 Guest

    Just remember chance and probability are NOT the SAME thing.
     
    #17     Dec 27, 2003
  8. lol actually...someone else can do it. i was just gonna do it in excel real quick, but i hit the column limit. :)
     
    #18     Dec 27, 2003
  9. Well I'm going to have to disagree because you are assuming that live/die is like a coin flip. There is a 50/50 chance of getting heads or tails when you flip a quarter but each day you wake up, there is a very small chance that you will die.

    That's like saying there is a 50/50 chance that our house will catch fire because we assume that there are only two states a house can exist in -- not on fire and on fire.

    You could even say there is a 50/50 chance that there is a god. You know there isn't and I know there is. With those odds, I'd go with god -- wouldn't you? ;)
     
    #19     Dec 27, 2003
  10. #20     Dec 27, 2003