Odds are that gamblers misunderstand system

Discussion in 'Politics' started by LongShot, Dec 26, 2003.

  1. I read till here :

    For example, a coin has a 50-50 chance of being heads on every flip, no matter how often you flip it. If you flip it 50 times, it would not be statistically stunning if it came up heads 47 times. Flip it a million times, however, and it would likely come up heads about 500,000 times.

    ... and stopped.
  2. fixed odds never change
  3. The odds of getting 47 heads out of 50 is ... well damn, I haven't done binomial statistics stuff in a long time. It is really significant, though. Probably beyond the odds of hitting the lotto.
  4. Also, the odds of getting exactly 500,000 heads from 1,000,000 flips is extremely low, yet it is the most likely result from them all. If you can understand how that would be (see bell curve).
  5. ie Attorney Small lawsuit is frivilous and he suffers the Gamblers Fallacy
  6. bobcathy1

    bobcathy1 Guest

    Everything in life is based on chance.
    Every day if you live or die there is a 50/50 odds. It is statistically significant that you have made it to your 20's......like winning the lottery that many times in a row.
    The basic logic on a computer is based on that fact....off or on..... 1 or 0.
    Just interesting to think about.
  7. 50/50 if you live or die each day????
  8. bobcathy1

    bobcathy1 Guest

    Yes it is Aphie. Think about it. You could die in any number of ways. You also can live.

    We live on a sphere that at any moment can erupt into a volcanic nightmare since we live on a thin crust on a molten ball of lava. Or an asteroid can hit us and we will explode into space.

    It is amazing that each day the sun rises and we breathe life giving air. That nothing has happened to us.

    Our bodies are very weak. One little burst blood vessel and we die. But it will repair itself.

    Marvelous this chance we have. Makes you stop and appreciate being alive.
  9. it's not 50/50, though. actually, we don't know what it is.

    it's just too chaotic to figure it out.

    for example, there may be a .00000000000000001% chance a plane lands on me today.

    and also a .00003% chance i get hit by a bus.

    .0005% chance i have a heart attack.

    some things you don't know the stats. for example, dying due to a nuclear bomb. although none have gone off in the usa yet, maliciously, if you live in a major city, you might be a target to someone.

    anyway, if you could add it all up, absolutely every possibility (which we can't do), you could say there's a x% chance you'll die today. i really doubt 50%, though.
    #10     Dec 27, 2003