doesn't look too conclusive to me. A bottom without a spike in odd lot short sales can mean several things. The bottom isn't real, the odd-lot indicator isn't always right, the <i>average</i> odd lot indicator is high overall and therefore bullish, wait and see....take your pick. <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=137783" width=450 height=345></img>
is NYSE Advance/Decline Ratio. According to Marty Zweig, when the ten day moving average of this puppy gets over 2, it's a sign of very strong momentum, and it rarely happens. <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=137789"width = 450 height = 345></img> We got very close in August (1.89), but didn't quite do it.
on last thing... <a href="http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/index.asp"><img src="http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/cfxtemp/CFT1013_2319214E.jpg"></img></a> from schaeffer's. click the graphic for details (select "streetools" and scroll to Market Timing Indicators -- Investor's Intelligence).
with the exception of the %bullish/bearish graphic above, all my charts are based on data I find in Barron's 'Market Lab.'
shows declining odd lot short sales as one would expect in the rally. We don't have enough history here to sound the alarm bells but we are near the levels that occurred at the previous top. <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=141897"></img> the grey line is the actual ratio, the pink line is the 10 day moving average of the ratio. The blue line is the cash spoo close.
when a consumer lending leader hits the skids. Of course, recovery could come from exports, or cap ex, or another catalyst. <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=141915"></img>
shows a clear downtrend in odd-lot shortselling, as the public buys the rally. The 10 day MA is lower than at the July bottom. Yet it seems to have flattened out for the time being, even hooking up just a bit. <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=145687"></img>
This data is current through 10/11. Even though it's a bit old, it shows an notable trend in the odd-lotter's positions. <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=145719"></img>