Odd-Lot Short Sales on the rise

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by chasinfla, Sep 15, 2002.

  1. FWIW.
    ok...working on it...
    <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=122059"width=600 height=400></img></left>
  2. ... I set this up so you could see it without having to download (above).

    Now, some of this might be attributable to increased volume overall. Later I'll post a similar figure as a percentage of volume.
  3. Chas,

    Is this suppossed to signify the bear is dying?

    If I remember correctly (and I probably don't), is it the odd lot theory that says when odd lot volume increases in one direction go the other way?. Isn't odd lot volume increase suppossed to idicate the presence of dumb money ( small retail guys) and an impending reversal?

  4. Homey, sssup?!

    You be correct, Sah. It is reputed to be a contrary indicator. I wouldn't take it by itself; I don't know what the historic extremes are, and I'm not posting it so that everyone will see it and go long.

    It's one of a bunch of things I watch, though. I sort of keep things like this in the back of my mind during the day, to see if mkt action be confirming it, blood.

    I doubt it means the end of the bear.

    If nothing else, at some point they'll have to cover.
  5. Notice, the data is two weeks old....(I'm hoping as it accumulates if might be more useful).

    <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=122094"width=550 height=400></img>

    There's not enough data here to really draw any conclusions, imho.
  6. This one's interesting because it shows the specialists shorting into the rally from the Big Low.

    <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=122109"width = 550 height=450></img>
  7. Pabst


    Chas, Two comments.

    It would be more interesting to see a lengthier sample. Secondly what i suspect, is that odd-lot data, much like the Ameritrade index, is a lagging indicator. IOW on days that the market rises, retail is a net seller, on declines they are net buyers. Over a longer book of data there may be some cool divergance analysis, but on the most part, odd lot activity is merely going to look like an upside down index chart, with little predictive value.
  8. This one was alot of work because I don't know how to make a double scale chart, so I had to make parts of one invisible and put it on top of the other. Hope you like it cause that process took a few minutes.

    <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=122125"width=550 height=400</img>

    It's just a rehash of the specialist shorting into the rally. Oh, and thats spoo <i>cash</i> on all my charts.
  9. I can't disagree -- maybe a contrary indicator. I think it has value at extremes, which is why I started tracking it. Time will tell.

    I don't have a lengthier sample, yet. Stay tuned.

    Another reason I do this is just to get inside the head of the market, if you will.
  10. Chas,

    Will be interesting to see how this plays out. I'll keep watching if you keep posting.

    #10     Sep 15, 2002