Octopus Outshines Investment Banks as Spain Wins

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by ASusilovic, Jul 12, 2010.

  1. Paul the Octopus proved correct once more as Spain indeed won the World Cup against the Netherlands, as he predicted.

    On Sunday, Spain won their first World Cup ever after scoring a goal in the last minutes of extra time; this was also the first victory by a European team when playing in the World Cup outside Europe.

    Paul, who now has his own Facebook page, was flawless in his picks, contrasting sharply with predictions made by banks ahead of the tournament.

    UBS, for example, gave Spain just a 4 percent chance of winning the trophy with their past performance model. The Netherlands, who meet Spain in the final Sunday, had just an 8 percent chance, the bank said.

    JPMorgan fared a little better, putting Spain in the final. But it predicted England — which exited in the first knock-out round game — would triumph.

    Banks were not the only ones whose predictions were outdone by Paul. Mani, a Singaporean parakeet credited with forecasting powers, had predicted a win for the Netherlands.

    On Friday the octopus, considered by some to be the most intelligent of all invertebrates, got the choice of picking food from two different transparent containers lowered into his tank — one with a Dutch flag on it and one with Spain's flag.

    Reaction in Spain was swift, with the country's biggest selling sports daily Web site Marca.com running the headline: "The octopus Paul makes us champions."

    The container Paul opens first is regarded as his pick. On Friday he wasted no time in diving for the container on the right side with the Spanish flag on it.

    Two German television networks interrupted their programming for live coverage of the two-year-old celebrity octopus's picks. Networks in Spain, the Netherlands and elsewhere in Europe also broadcast Paul's decision live.


    Animals have better projection skills than investment bankers. Quod erat demonstrandum. We should hire Paul for our purposes an this board:D
  2. Hi, this is Paul. I heard you wanted to hire me? I charge a flat non-refundable fee of EUR 20k/hr. What do you want to know?

  3. 7 successful picks from win/lose option. (50/50)

    The chances of this happening?



    How many mollusks do you need that, at least one of them will get 7 answers correctly, with 95% or better confidence level.
  4. 382
  5. It was actually 8 picks.
  6. Ha, ha. I like the "non-refundable" part...:D