October Performance

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Palindrome, Oct 31, 2018.

  1. d08

    d08

    Exactly. It's good but also stressful. There's another dimension to this - regulation. If things are volatile and bad for a long time, regulators will come up with new insane rules which are almost always bad for traders. The market isn't as removed from bureaucrats and politicians as we'd want it to be.
     
    #11     Oct 31, 2018
    wrbtrader likes this.
  2. In equities I agree when vol gets high it's easier. I had my best month ever too. I don't agree with being easier to read though, for me. What's easier is to just jump in. Anywhere. It's much more forgiving than slow upward grinds. You can sell almost anywhere into the move as the downside expands. In low vol up moves I have trouble buying highs as the subsequent retrace is much more likely to take me out. I can only trade a more mean reversion approach buying when price is dropping.

    In high vol down moves, even if you hit the market at lows it just makes new lows really fast and unless you are really unlucky and sold the bottom, you will likely be fine and catch something.


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    #12     Nov 1, 2018
    yc47ib, schweiz and comagnum like this.
  3. October was far from a normal month in the markets. September had 4 less trading days than October, so let's exclude the first four days of October to make a similar comparison (19 trading days).

    In September the average range was 16,50 compared to 53,00 in October. If you add up the ranges, the sum was 1005,25 points for October while for September it was 313,00 points. If you look at the points offered, the number is 10 395,50 points for October compared to 1514,25 for September. This is for ES in RTH (09:30-16:00).

    So, the difference in volatility is remarkable. :)
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2018
    #13     Nov 1, 2018
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  4. Specterx

    Specterx

    I use tick charts and adjust for volatility so I don't see any difference between e.g. September and now, charts look the same, setups occur with more or less the same overall frequency, relative frequency and risk-adjusted EV. I'm trading NQ though which already had plenty of action even before October.
     
    #14     Nov 1, 2018
  5. Same here, I am up about 13% in October. Wild swings triggered more trades than usual (I run a fully automated trading system).

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    #15     Nov 2, 2018
  6. maxinger

    maxinger

    Don’t expect calm markets in October, historically a month for wild swings
    PUBLISHED MON, SEP 30 20191:57 PM EDTUPDATED 5 HOURS AGO

    Yun Li@YUNLI626





    KEY POINTS
    • October has historically been the most volatile month as the VIX, an index that measures investors’ fear, tends to peak during the month, according to Macro Risk Advisors.
    • The market’s surprising resilience in September, which is typically the worst month for stocks, could also signal the rally is about to lose steam.
    • There isn’t a lack of catalysts to drive the market crazy from the upcoming trade talks to Trump’s impeachment saga.

    _____________________________________________



    I modify the news to suit the day traders :

    Expect great fantastic markets in October, historically a month for very wide day range
    by @maxinger

    KEY POINTS
    • October has historically been the most volatile month as the VIX, an index that measures investors’ fear, tends to peak during the month, according to Macro Risk Advisors.
    . So make hay while the Sun shines !!!!
    ________________________________
     
    #16     Sep 30, 2019
    trader99 and comagnum like this.