October 2nd 2006, Black Monday?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by dan05, Sep 15, 2006.

  1. frank99

    frank99

    I haven't looked at the charts from previous crashes, but I will try to find the data. What does "exhuberance followed by a lower low" mean?

    Does it look like there is going to be a crash based on what you see with the charts?


    Thanks,

    Frank

     
    #21     Sep 24, 2006
  2. dan05

    dan05

    Hi everyone.

    Just wanted to post the Updated prediction for the next 20 days.

    You can compare it with the first one posted.

    For the system, the bearish movement is still valid.

    Take care.
     
    #22     Sep 28, 2006

  3. Or how about a crazy ituation where oil goes down, which is bullish for the economy so SP goes up - sound familiar?
     
    #23     Sep 28, 2006
  4. LT701

    LT701

    i'm having some fun with that play

    it cant go unnoticed that the rise to (and above) the $spx may top was done during a near crash in oil, which now seems to be stabilized

    you'd think there'd be quite a lot of interest in locking in the current prices for oil as a hedge for many companies that are affected by it, thereby, a floor at this level
     
    #24     Sep 28, 2006
  5. LT701

    LT701

    elain garzellie, or something like that, and marty zwieg both called the 87 crash

    in oct 2000, elain was bullish on the nasdaq, and zwieg liked global crossing

    .......oops

    (and larry williams won a trading tournament in the 80s too!)

    bob brinker perfectly called the 98 bottom, and the bear in early 2000, yet for some reason felt compelled to get his flock into the qqq in oct 2000 for a 'counter trand ralley' which he rode down, say, 60 points or so without stops

    the road of guru worship leads to the slaughterhouse, sooner or later
     
    #25     Sep 28, 2006
  6. I like that, thank goodness Trader Monthly magazine promoted me from "guru" to "legend" (as if, LOL. )

    Don :D
     
    #26     Sep 28, 2006
  7. What is the scale on the left of the chart? Based on the crash scenario you linked to the chart shows the crash will happen in early october, and be right back to where it was in two weeks. That's not much of a crash.
     
    #27     Sep 28, 2006
  8. dan05

    dan05

    Hi HolyGrail,

    Sorry about that. That was the DOW JONES COMPOSITE INDEX not the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN. That was comparable with the first chart when I started the thread.

    Attached the correct chart. for the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN

    The Pink shadow are other probable paths identified by the system. You can check how it evolved since I saterted the Thread.

    I agree that it is a Black Monday, may the thread name was too much.

    Take care.




     
    #28     Sep 28, 2006
  9. Still only about a 3.3% drop at the most from right now if it actually happens.

    Predictions right or wrong, what I would like to know is, will I be able to trade and have orders filled while the market is crashing?

    What about program trades all rushing in to
    sell before hitting the circuit breaker or curb? Then trading resumes and all the program trades make another rush to the next curb.

    Just trade whatever I'm willing to lose I suppose. Just be prepared for a 30-40% possible loss one of these days and rebuild from there.

    What concerns me is some traders trade the eminis and don't have the cash to cover a 30% drop. About $20k for each S&P emini times 1,5,10 contracts.
     
    #29     Sep 29, 2006
  10. dan05

    dan05

    is this starting?
     
    #30     Sep 29, 2006