it does not matter what they say ... they each hedge their bets what else is new ... what matters is the order flow and which side is being squeezed the most right now whether in outrights or spreads ... ( ok ... maybe the technicals or fundamentals or T boone count too in this market )
kind of off topic for this thread, but since i started it i should abuse it I guess, but are any of you looking to bottom pick oil here? I am thinking of trying a small long at about the 60-61 area and then more aggressive longs at 55? what think yee all?
I'd wait until the trend was clear ... even if that means a little missed opportunity -- there needs to be a catalyst. every EIA report that continues saying what it is will be just a little more reason to sell...
i wish my broker (IB) had crude oil options? maybe the do and i just dont know it? this is the perfect situation where I would like to sell puts, or perhaps buy calls
exited my small long position today before the selloff at 5.14 from an entry of 4.85 a few days ago. i missed the peak (5.25) (sold off before it peaked), but i'm happy with it. the cash market is VERY VERY weak right now, so i wouldn't bottom pick this for a while. i -might- buy oct around 4.60. but with so little time left until november is the front month, i don't think there's too much opportunity (besides working the spread). still holding long 4 ng oct, short 2 ng nov, short 2 ng dec. will likely go to next week with it.
i'm waiting too -- i know ng options should be here at IB near year end, so I can only assume the same for options on cl or qm.
guess the hedge funds should rather be using the traders on this forum...... http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/18/markets/hedgefunds_natgas/index.htm?postversion=2006091811 black box blowups - I can almost guarantee it!
i agree. watching the program trading that goes on in these markets makes me laugh sometimes -- there must be a lot of sloppy trades being executed. PS - strange how the ng spread moved in the opposite direction like a rubberband this morning, isn't it? wonder whats up. look at the strip for the whole year. its all over the place - nov down, dec up, jan-mar 07 down, apr-may 07 up, jun-jul 07 down.
ps - I wonder if today's strange motion on the strip is caused by this hedge fund closing bad positions ... with 7 bil under management, i'm sure their NG positions can cause enough volume to move the markets. Dec, Apr and May look like good short opportunities.