Oct Natural gas being sold bigtime

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by jasonjm, Aug 31, 2006.

  1. jasonjm



    some heavy duty selling this week

    but nov and dec contracts dont seem to be that willing to give up as much....

    I am definitely underwater on my positions now

    where be the bottom lol
  2. e-miNY


    The thing has been down since ernesto was a bluff. I hope u are not averaging down. Otherwise, there will be another Bo Collins.
  3. are you in the oct contract? man down to $6. nov's held up better
  4. jasonjm


    im long OCT 1 QG future from 6.8

    and another now from 6.045

    on a pretty large account, but i dont like losing money hehe

    the difference in the price of the monthly contracts is just amazing to me

    Im pretty new to NG, its movements are crazy
  5. i'm in the same position as you (avg long 6.45 oct, but also short november avg 8.46 right now.)

    this is very unlike previous years because the spread between Oct and Nov is so gigantic. i'm hoping cash spot prices (6.40 today) will act as support for the futures, so perhaps this selling will be followed by a short covering upsurge.

    Today I do have another theory that no one is yet discounting Nov yet because hurricane systems generally take a few weeks to develop and follow through. So basically that makes the likelyhood of a cat 3-5 hurricane killing gulf platforms before Oct futures expiration much lower than Nov.

    That can be the only explanation for this price difference of $2.15 right now - nearly 25% between the two contracts.

    I still think it won't hold - last year's price difference between oct and nov was much much less.
  6. jasonjm


    any place to see historical price differences between contracts as they expire (I mean as a contract expires, to see the difference between it and the next months contract?)

    I wouldn't mind calculating it by hand i guess if i could find the data somewhere too
  7. e-miNY


    Broke 6 bucks. Fire in a jam packed theatre. Everyone is running to the door.

    One thing to note tho. The NYMEX raised margin for natty gas. Guess what will happen to the undercapitalized weak longs?
  8. http://www.mrci.com/ohlc/

  9. front months don't change from what they were. (i think they changed last month all ready)
  10. e-miNY


    Spread at 4.02 for Dec now. WoW! Just 50 days left in the contract. 4.02 for 50 days storage. Sure it is out of line, but not sure why arbitrager are not stepping in. Record storage, maybe no capacity at all to take advantage of the 4.02.
    #10     Sep 1, 2006