Oct-Apr examples

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Jordan, May 27, 2003.

  1. Jordan


    A lot is printed this time of year about the Oct-April period being the best to be long stocks. I don't pay much attention to this type of stuff usually, but GM sure is a very good example. Take a look at the daily chart - apologies for the blasphemy to the daytraders :).

    EK is another example, although not as nice as GM. Does anyone else have an example of a stock that has manifested similar price behavior?
  2. GM??

    Are you being serious?

    Pick a stock out of the hat at random and you'll likely pull up a better chart than GM, from Oct - April

    The vast majority of stocks rallied heavily from their Oct lows. GM was hardly one of the outperformers. Take a look at something like SOHU or NTSE for real eye-popping performance.
  3. Jordan


    Yes and over the last 15 years what examples do you have alfie? Clearly neither I nor the proponents of this cyclical behavior were limiting it to this most recent period.

    You know, actually try to think about the question before you just vomit something from your brain to the keyboard! There is more to this than the latest tech rally.

    However, you raised an issue that I wanted to discuss as well. Because this year, as opposed to the last 10 or so for GM, performance did not mirror what it had done previously, should one expect the same degree of downside as seen in previous YEARS (caps for people like alfonso who are stuck in the last 6 months)? Or is a downside similar in degree to the upside, or lack of it, to be expected?
  4. LOL. Take it easy buddy.

    You're right, I thought you were referring only to the last Oct-April period. It didn't occur to me that you might be talking about the October effect in general. My apologies.

    I'm tempted to write this off as an anomaly, but I'm actually curious about it, so I'm going to go over some stock histories as far back as I can take them. I suppose it could come in handy as a confirmatory indicator.
  5. Jordan


    I'm glad you saw the humor alfonso... I read the thread this morning and realized that my reply was not obviously light-hearted. A guy used that on me one time elsewhere and I rolled laughing, but in his case he was right. :eek:

    Anyway, looking at the daily or weekly chart for GM and EK, the effect is pretty clear. I'm thinking it would be nice to have some of these in the toolbox to keep an eye on as we approach October.