Are these grains slave to the overall financial markets? My corn puts have been lucrative since late June. What will it take to turn this market around?
Grains are extremely oversold; it cannot be that there was a sudden drastic change in the food demand/supply situation. As equity markets rally, grains and energy markets will turn around. Not too keen in beans but Corn and Wheat may have bottomed or in the process of doing so now.
Reversal bars put in today across the grains. Time will tell if they've fouhd a bottom or just retrace. They are trading right along with the equity markets right now rather than fundamentals, so watch the S&P action. For the record, I am long Dec. corn at 380.00 as of last night, and have buy orders working in March Beans. I'm also now spreading beans vs corn in the March contract.
hey TX hope all is well, Im long july beans over july corn. I will look at march. Long dec 08 corn/dec 09 and long dec/july 09. Im a little more short july corn than I wanna be but calls are cheap (realtively) might hedge that way. Hope everybody hada good week and have a great weekend guys!!
Easing credit markets will help. Also ocean freight is EXTREMELY cheap and will help spark demand again. BUY GRAINS.
One just gotta trade with the trend - as silly as it sounds. If credit chaos contunues then this may affect delivery of the physical goods since most shipping merchants will start rejcting bank issued Letters of Credit - LC's are the oil that runs international business transactions - so grains should go up right - no look whats happening as someone said here they are trading more like S&P's - where is the logic in that - liquadation, no demand, over supply - anybody's guess
I've had more interest from domestic buyers the last two weeks for this time of year than in the past two years. Yes international biz will heal up once LOC's are trusted again. GM
http://charts.dacharts.com/2008-12-03/2008-12-03 18-57 ZC H9 D.png Triple print (345) on the March Corn contract. As long as that holds I'll be looking for longs. http://charts.dacharts.com/2008-12-03/2008-12-03 19-03 ZC #F M.png Monthly seems to corroborate.
One cannot look at the monthly chart this early in the month and make a decision based upon that. One can only review the previous month's activity at this stage and there is nothing at the moment that suggests a bottom long term. My buystop in March Corn is at 4.70.