I likely didn't get there the same way as you, but I am in agreement with you. My commitment would be stronger had the failure occurred at 45+ rather than 43.75, but close enough is close enough to make it cheap in terms of risk, especially given the nearly 95 minutes traders had to think about whether they wanted to pay higher prices and then, when given the chance, apparently deciding they weren't quite ready. But, my inclination is to expect higher prices before the end of the day so long as price remains above 37.75, and below there my expectation rises that price tests the 30's
But it would need to see more buyer's remorse set in and stay below there soon. The market formed two hinges, imo, on the way from the LOD back to the high of the range, and that 37.75/38 coincides with the midpoint of the first (earliest/lower) hinge. Stay below 37.75 and then break and stay below 35.75 and buyer's remorse likely will increase. Above 38 likely to generate some additional demand and could be the spark to finally carry to 45.
None of this is a prediction. But it is worth noting, from the perspective of an observer, what just happened (12:46ish EST) at 35.75/50
And right back to 37.75/38 These are not invisible levels or magic levels or levels you need to chant strange incantations to see - it is obvious from how price is behaving that everyone but the clueless can see, e.g. those who just had sell stops to go short at 35.50 triggered only to see themselves stopped out for a loss at 38.25 a minute or so later. For those who use AMT and got short near 43.75, you can already have scaled out of a few contracts with 3/5/8 points, and be sitting, relaxed, and waiting to see what, if anything, occurs at 41, which is more or less the midpoint of the final hinge before the DT. Or at 39, or at 43.75 - whatever or whichever - this is where each individual needs to observe and back test and decide for him or herself what type of swing he or she is comfortable trading for, how much they are willing to "give back," at what point the risk/reward skews enough against them that they call uncle and quit the trade.
Did not foresee that second run above 41 nor the quick retreat. 41 now becomes the point by which I would judge what I will do with my remaining shorts position. I try to give the market every opportunity to head to the opposite extreme of its immediate range once it fails to move beyond the other extreme. I am often, though certainly not always, rewarded for my patience.