I can now count 5 waves up from last thurdays lows ... a double flat correction into today's low ... and now another 5 waves up into todays highs ... support now 2118 - 2121 COMPX
gharghur2, Just for your information, on your 'long term' chart, between 2000 and 2002, you have a down ''C'' wave which is probably acceptable. However, the fact that you then subdivided it into 2 smaller a-b-c's is not acceptable in EW theory since a "C" wave can NEVER be anything other than 5 waves. So, you might wanna go back and re-count. Having said all that, I don't believe in applying EW other than in Dow charts where the theory was originated. I rarely use it nowadays, anyway.
Hi risktaker, Appreciate your comments. Agree about the DOW charts, but it is applicable to the COMPX now that it is the leading index. As for the C wave labeling: historically the maxim you mentioned has proven to be incorrect. True, waves have been counted like that in the past, but that was due to subjective labeling. I do not use subjective labeling. The very last wave needs to be a 5, not the entire C wave decline. Thank you for bringing that up. Best to your day! Tony
============ ''Trendless '' or sideways trend markets arent a big problem unless a swingtrader is using front month options, or overtrades. There is something basic/valuable with EW but its very basic; very,very basic & personaly no where near as valuable as DOW theory. Much prefer the modified adapted William O'Neill version of DOW theory which personalized or paraphrased; substitute DIA,SPY,QQQ for DOW/transports & get 2 or 3 confirms for best results. Frankly dont even think 30 stocks mean much; although DOW,DIA related 30 stocks could. Agree with the idea of not holding a 2005 market hostage to railroads/airlines/transports; LUV sector has always been fun to fly but historicaly a personal favorite to short, not something to get a WHOLE NATIONAL market opinion on. Wisdom is profitable to direct.
GM... I track the actual INDU, INX and COMPX indices and the DIA, SPY, Q's. O'Neill is right! However, when only 2 of the 3 are trending and the other is lagging, the trend will not go far or last very long. Case in point: Apr '05 to Aug '05; the INDU did not want to participate, advance was very modest. EW is not just counting waves It is recognizing trends; using other indicators and historical references, to confirm those trends. And then, relating the trend to the overall historical pattern of the market. When one is tuned into where the market is in the overall structure of the advance. It is far easier to anticipate where, how long, and how high it can go after that. For me, only EW can provide these probabilties on a consistent basis.Thanks for the post! tony
Time to revive this thread. No posts since a Neely follower posted on 10/01 Since the last post we made new lows in all three indices on 10/13. The SPX has been persistent in trying to take out it's lows, and it may finally succeed this week. The DOW may too. Anyway, the lows are in or close to it. A close in the DOW at 10,683 or higher will confirm the new impulse wave: (iii) of 3 of V. That's only 4% up from fridays close, and only 2% above the intraday high for the week. I'll post the numbers for the other indices next week.
gharghur2, I'm not an EW expert, but looking at your dow chart, the question popped up why you don't consider the peak in DOW at the beginning of 2005 as the end of V ? -- i.e., DOW has already topped??