Tony, A buddy of mine that believes that we are still hanging in there for an impulse wave up ( he's not in the double zigzap camp ) and needs a close above 1243.13 in order to project Wave 5 targets of 5 waves up off the August 30th lows of: 1260.40 ( 1.382 times Wave 1 ) 1266.50 ( 1.618 times Wave 1 ) Obviously, today's decline puts a chink in his bullish impulse case. He is using a close below 1229.05 as his key pivot point that would confirm a pattern failure.
Mike, Yes, I can see that count in the SP500. It even appears in the COMPX and INDU. Today's close in the COMPX exceeded the key pivot, for failure, your buddy is using. However, it has not happened in the INDU or INX as of yet. My MMI is still displaying correctional activity, as it has since the August top. I tend to believe this is all correctional activity. Hope this helps Tony
Mike, I posted on another thread at 11:30 this morning: Technical Analysis âºâº heavy resistance COMPX 2161 - 2164 You might find it interesting. Tony
Was checking my charts this morning trying to anticipate a bottom to this correction. And, here is a possible scenario: If the market can drop 2% between now and friday. i.e. INDU 10270 and COMPX 2188 It'll be sufficiently oversold on my MMI and stochastics And probably completed wave patterns in the INDU (flat) and COMPX (zigzag) If we drop 2% straight down till friday I THINK WE CAN LET THE BULL OUT OF THE CORAL AGAIN http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
You don't need EW or charts to tell you that everyone and his cousin will start accumulating at 10200's with agressive buying and buy hand over fist at 10000's. nitro
Added a new thread: Technical Analysis âºâº Lock and Load...Ready to Bear hunt? detailing the above.
Even though the market has barely budged off it's closing lows of last wednesday: COMPX +0.4%, INDU +0.9% and the INX +0.6%, I feel we have seen a major bottom; and the end of the ABC correction in the COMPX. I can't rule out one more shake out to get the two other indices (INDU and INX) into oversold condition, but at this point that may not be required. This is why! With last weeks selloff into the recent lows, I can now count wave C being completed, and the entire ABC correction (minute ii) completed in the form of a flat. I had mentioned this possibly on Sept 17th. Adding more conviction to this count is the fact that the COMPX made an intraday bottom of 2093 last thursday, retested that 2093 bottom on friday. Then rallied up 5 waves to 2133 by monday, and has since corrected to 2109 on tuesday, and retested 2109 successfully again today. Thus, I can see an impulse wave up from the intraday lows and a correction of that advance in the form of a flat. This would indicate that the COMPX should start heading much higher right about now. Tony http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/