Sorry I still do not get your point. I wrote about a bull market in interest rates when everyone was either neutral or bullish on bonds. Not to be contrarian, but because the waves were displaying a new bull market in rates. Rates have risen, bonds tanked 10 points in four months, and everybody is now bearish. Where is the history in anticipating current events months before they occur?
One of us is confused. All I am saying is reeeeeeeeeeeeally simple. If you write about something AFTER it happens, in particular you are writing about the summer of '05 in Jan of '06, your analysis is not wrong, it is just meaningless to anyone but historians. When you say Greenie was fighting EW, that was when I think you lost perspective. I am not saying anything more or less than that! Write about stuff AS IT HAPPNES. nitro
Greenspan was! Not fighting EW per se, but fighting market psychology. We make market sentiment, not the FED. Anyways. The NAZ/NDX have already broken down. And the SPX/DOW are close to their highs. You can figure out what's next.
INTERMEDIATE TERM: downtrend NAZ/NDX, uptrend SPX/DOW Currently we have a mixed market. The failure of the NDX to make new highs since its March 10th low has hampered the overall progress of this uptrend. At first the DOW/SPX/NAZ all made new highs. Now, the NAZ has sided with the NDX and entered a downtrend at the early part of this week. As the cyclical SPX/DOW continue to make new highs, the lagging growth sector is rising, but is not supporting the uptrend in the cyclicals. Therefore, one or the other will have to concede eventually.
The Value of Objective EW analysis On April 9, 2006 I published a special report: CHINA's New Bull market! My OEW analysis suggested that China was in the early stages of a new bull market. On April 30, 2006 I published a follow up report. Both are available in the archives under April 2006 and the appropriate date. The SSEC had closed at 1342.96 on April 7th, the last trading day before the initial report. Early this morning, May 11th in China, the SSEC closed at 1537.38 a gain of over 14% in a bit more 30 days. An explosive intermediate wave iii is underway. Here are excerpts from the orignal report: CHINA's New Bull market! At the beginning of 2006 I started posting charts and wave counts on several of the foreign markets: ten in all. Most have similar patterns to the indices in the U.S. Thus, it was just another view of basically the same worldwide bull market. However, a few foreign markets appeared decidedly different, namely: Australia's ASX, Japan's Nikkei and China's SSEC. China provides a very unique investment situation, in my opinion. A country with a vast potential of natural resources, a total population second to none, and a government determined to make their country prosperous in the world market place after centuries of economic and political isolation. China's economy has been growing at a 10% rate for several years now, with hardly any inflation. In July 2005, China's stock market ended a multi-year bear market, which corrected the excesses brought about by the normal cause of bear markets: overspeculation. Historically, from 1994 - mid 2001 the SSEC soared: from a low of 325 to a high of 2245, a 600% gain. This was Cycle wave [1] . A four year bear market then ensued, retracing over 60% of the previous bull market. This is Cycle wave [2]. From the recent July 2005 low, the SSEC has thus far advanced in only two impulse waves: Major wave 1 and Intermediate wave i. This appears to be only the beginning of its next bull market, or in OEW terms, the beginning of Cycle wave [3]. As the western bull markets appear to be winding down, some of the eastern bull markets appear to be winding up. There is always a bull market somewhere. And, I will do my best to find it. Best to your investing!
Our mixed market seems to have been resolved with a solution to the downside. The selling in the US indices on thursday reverberated around the world, as all markets but Shanghai's SEC, were down friday morning. In Asia, the Nikkei reversed its uptrend on friday after a one year extended rally. And, the FTSE in Europe reversed its uptrend on friday also, after a more than six month rally. It would appear that the Nikkei and FTSE will be leading their respective markets lower during this medium term correction. http://spaces.msn.com/caldaroEW/
Have you done any adjustments to your portfolio, or do you plan to do any? I mean, to make it less bullish.
HI! I effectively went neutral on the market the first week of May, as I noted in my blog that week: "a defensive position is now warranted." When a decent bottom is in place an excellent buying opportunity will be at hand.
I just finished reading the Elliot Wave Principal book. I bought it yesterday, and finished it today. I must say that I am fascinated by the concept. As soon as I opened the book and read the first two chapters my mind snapped. I looked at various charts and I started seeing waves just like the book says! I am new to trading in general. Actually, I've never even traded, I've been paper trading for the last 5 months or so (with success). Nevertheless I think EW is a powerful tool to use in combination with everything else I've been doing. It completed the "picture" for me if you will. Anyways, I am very new at this elliot wave theory (having just finished the book), and I would like to ask you a question Tony. I am looking at the S&P 500 daily chart, and I'm thinking we're coming off of a wave five top in to a correction. Is my EW perception of the daily chart correct? The reason I'm asking is because I'm not sure if its a wave five top or an extended wave three. I'm leaning more towards a five, but still being new at this I'm not sure. Please shed some light! Thanks!