I watch what happens in every US Financial market very closely. I may not understand what you are posting, but according to what you wrote, you were analysing in January what had happened the summer before, no? nitro
I have concluded, based upon OEW analysis, that the 24-year Supercycle bear market in interest rates ended in June of 2005. Since that low, we have had two impulse waves: the first from late June - early Aug, a correction, and then another impulse wave stronger than the first, from late Aug - early Nov. See chart: BONDdaily. The market is currently in the process of correcting this second impulse wave. Since the first wave was not a kickoff to a bull market like we often see in stocks, but a gradual climb, I've labeled it major wave 1 of primary wave I. The second advance, which was stronger, but it's correction is overlapping major wave 1, I've labeled minor wave i of major wave 3. Thus, we have effectively a 1 - 2, 1 - 2 coming off the recent Supercycle bear market low in June, 2005. To confirm this bull market, I expect like to see a 5% long term yield by as early as this spring. So one can state that I'm not only bullish on stocks, but now also bullish on interest rates.
Geeesus. This is not that complicated. When did you write that? What date EXACTLY? As far as I can tell you are writing about 2005 in 2006: "January 16, 2006 Special Report: interest rates... " nitro
The yield on the 30yr bond was 4.47 % when i wrote it only four months ago. It is now 5.23%, the highest its been since mid 2004.
Oh man. I am not trying to say that you don't do good work. Just put it in perspective. Writting about stuff months later is of no use to anyone except historians. Here is a thread from long before your "writeup" where I said rates were going higher: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=57011 It means nothing nitro
Because in theory it feels right. It is based on a sound basis. The problem is that markets are far more complex than EWs give it credit for. But from a perspective of a place to start your analysis it is one of the best structures to use imo. nitro